北极海冰的年代际转型与中国冻雨年代际变化的关系

牛璐; 黄菲; 周晓

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2015.11.010

北极海冰的年代际转型与中国冻雨年代际变化的关系

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2015.11.010

牛璐¹,
黄菲^2,,
周晓¹

1.
中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100;中国海洋大学山东省高校海洋-大气相互作用与气候重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100
2.
中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100;中国海洋大学山东省高校海洋-大气相互作用与气候重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100;宁波大学宁波市非线性海洋和大气灾害系统协同创新中心, 浙江宁波 315211

基金项目: 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2015CB953904,2012CB955604);国家自然科学基金委员会-山东省人民政府联合资助海洋科学研究中心项目(U1406401)。

计量
- 文章访问数: 1272
- HTML全文浏览量: 6
- PDF下载量: 929
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-04-16

Decadal regime shift of Arctic sea ice and associated decadal variability of Chinese freezing rain

1.
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmospheric Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmospheric Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Ningbo Collabrative Innovation Center of Nonlinear Harzard System of Ocean and Atmosphere, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China

摘要

摘要: 基于1961-2013年HadISST海冰密集度资料,定义了北极海冰的季节性融冰指数,结果显示近几十年来北极季节性融冰范围呈显著的上升趋势,并分别在20世纪70年代末和90年代中期存在显著的年代际转型,相应地,中国冻雨发生频数总体上呈现出显著的减少趋势,但也存在显著的年代际转型。在20世纪70年代末之前,北极季节性融冰范围较小但显著增长,中国冻雨频数年际变化振幅较大,且主要受巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰的影响;20世纪70年代末至90年代中期北极季节性融冰范围维持振荡特征,没有显著的线性趋势,中国冻雨频数变化振幅减小,与北极海冰相关较弱,主要相关因子为北大西洋及北太平洋海表温度变化;而90年代中期以后,北极海冰融化加快,特别是2007年以后,季节性融冰范围大大增加,而中国冻雨频数处于低发时段,其变化与太平洋扇区海冰及堪察加半岛附近海温呈显著负相关,季节性融冰的显著区域也从东西伯利亚海逆时针旋转向波弗特海-加拿大群岛北部扩张,同时向北极中央区扩张。不同年代影响冻雨的海温或海冰关键海区不同,产生特定的大气环流异常响应,进而影响到我国冻雨。
- 冻雨 /
- 季节性融冰 /
- 年代际转型 /
- 大气环流异常 /
- 海温
Abstract: Based on the HadISST sea ice concentration (SIC) data from 1961-2013, we define the Arctic sea ice seasonal melting index and analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of Arctic sea ice seasonal melting extent. It turns out that in recent decades there are two significant decadal regime shift, late 1970s and the middle of 1990s respectively. Before the late 1970s, the oscillation of Arctic sea ice extent was decrease under the background of global warming, the seasonal melting extent (SME) was small but increased significantly; during the late 1970s and the middle of 1990s, the oscillation of the SME was maintain and had no significant trend; while after the middle of 1990s, although there is a hiatus of the global warming, the melting of Arctic sea ice is accelerating, especially after 2007, during which Arctic sea ice SME is greatly increased. Besides that, as the time goes by, the significant SME area expanded anticlockwise from the East Siberia sea to Beaufort Sea-north Canadian Arctic Archipelago gradually, and expand to the central Arctic at the same time. Correspondingly, the total frequency of Chinese freezing rain (CFR) is decreasing during the past several decades and also has significant decadal regime shift. The inter-annual amplitude of the total frequency of CFR was large during 1962-1979, then turned small during 1980-1996, with close relation to SST instead of sea ice. After 1997 the total frequency of CFR is at a low stage, but is increasing, which may mostly be influenced by Arctic sea ice variability. The key area of SST or SIC that influence CFR are different during different decadal epochs, resulting in certain atmospheric background circulation anomalies. There is a consistency between the change of CFR and the SME, which means that the decadal regime shift of the Arctic sea ice may be the cause of the decadal regime shift of Chinese freezing rain.
- freezing rain /
- seasonal melting sea ice /
- decadal regime shift /
- atmospheric circulation anomaly /
- sea surface temperature

HTML全文

参考文献(24)

Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, et al. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(9): L09501.

Maslanik J, Stroeve J, Fowler C, et al. Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2011, 38(13): L13502.

Parkinson C L, Comiso J C. On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(7): 1356-1361.

Overland J E, Wang M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice[J]. Tellus A, 2010, 62(1): 1-9.

Comiso J C, Parkinson C L, Gersten R, et al. Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(1):L01703.

黄菲, 狄慧, 胡蓓蓓, 等. 北极海冰的年代际转型及极端低温变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2014, 3(2): 39-45. Huang Fei, Di Hui, Hu Beibei, et al. Decadal regime shift of Arctic sea ice and corresponding changes of extreme low temperature[J]. Climate Change Research Letters, 2014, 3(2): 39-45.

Zhang X, Sorteberg A, Zhang J, et al. Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(22):L22701.

Francis J A, Chan W, Leathers D J, et al. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(7):L07503.

Screen J A, Simmonds I, Deser C, et al. The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(4): 1230-1248.

Liu J, Curry J A, Wang H, et al. Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012, 109(11): 4074-4079.

许丹, 罗喜平. 贵州凝冻的时空分布特征和环流成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2003, 22(4): 401-404. Xu Dan, Luo Xiping.Time and space characters of congeal in Guizhou and circulation features analyses[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2003, 22(4): 401-404.

叶茵, 杜小玲, 严小冬, 等. 贵州冻雨时空分布及对应临近环流特征分析[J]. 贵州气象, 2007, 31(6): 11-13. Ye Yin, Du Xiaoling, Yan Xiaodong, et al. Time and space characters of congeal in Guizhou and circulation features analyses nearby[J]. Journal of Guizhou Meteorology, 2007, 31(6): 11-13.

严小冬, 吴战平, 古书鸿, 等. 贵州冻雨时空分布变化特征及其影响因素浅析[J]. 高原气象, 2009, 28(3): 694-701. Yan Xiaodong, Wu Zhanping, Gu Shuhong, et al.Analyses on the space-time distribution characteristics and their influence factors of freezing rain in Guizhou Province[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(3): 694-701.

张艳梅, 顾欣, 陈海涛, 等. 贵州高原西北部冻雨的时空变化特征[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(3): 477-482. Zhang Yanmei, Gu Xin, Mei Haitao, et al. Temporal and spatial characteristics of freezing rain days over the northwestern Guizhou Plateau[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(3): 477-482.

王凌, 高歌, 张强, 等. 2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析I.气候特征与影响评估[J]. 气象, 2008, 34(4):95-100. Wang Ling, Gao Ge, Zhang Qiang, et al. Analysis of the severe cold surge , ice-snow and frozen disasters in south China during January 2008 :I. climatic features and its impact[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2008, 34(4): 95-100.

赵琳娜, 马清云, 杨贵名. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻对重点行业的影响及致灾成因分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(4):556-566. Zhao Linna, Ma Qingyun, Yang Guiming. Disasters and its impact of a severe snow storm and freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(4):556-566.

陶诗言, 卫捷. 2008年1月我国南方严重冰雪灾害过程分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(4): 337-350. Tao Shiyan, Wei Jie. Severe snow and freezing rain in January 2008 in the southern China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(4): 337-350.

赵思雄, 孙建华. 2008年初南方雨雪冰冻天气的环流场与多尺度特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(4):351-367. Zhao Sixiong, Sun Jianhua. Multi-scale systems and conceptual model on freezing rain and snow storm over southern China during January-February 2008[J].Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(4): 351-367.

李崇银, 杨辉, 顾薇. 中国南方雨雪冰冻异常天气原因的分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(2): 113-122. Li Chongyin, Yang Hui, Gu Wei. Cause of severe weather with cold air, freezing rain and snow over south China in January 2008[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(2): 113-122.

王遵娅. 中国冰冻日数的气候及变化特征分析[J].大气科学, 2011, 35(3): 411-421. Wang Zunya. Climatic characters and changes of ice freezing days in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences( in Chinese), 2011, 35(3): 411-421.

魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 57-66. Wei Fengying. Modern Climate Statistics and Forecast Technology[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 1999: 57-66.

陈广才, 谢平. 水文变异的滑动F识别与检验方法[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(2): 57-60. Chen Guangcai, Xie Ping. Slide F test of Change-Point Analysis[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(2): 57-60.

黄嘉佑. 气象统计分析与预报方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 28-36. Huang Jiayou. Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Method of Meteorology[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2004: 28-36.

Huang Fei, Shan Xiaolin, Fan Tingting. Decadal change of annual range for the Arctic sea ice in recent 30 years[C]//Proceedings of the Twenty-first (2011) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE-2011. Maui, Hawaii, USA, 2011: 978-985.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计