渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理

郑冬梅; 王志斌; 张书颖; 许鹏; 周志强

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2015.06.002

渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2015.06.002

辽宁省海洋环境预报与防灾减灾中心, 辽宁沈阳 110001

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-07-15

Interannual and interdecadal variations of the sea ice in Bohai Sea and its mechanisms

Marine Environmental Forecasting and Disaster Preventing and Reducing Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110001, China

摘要

摘要: 根据1951-2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料,利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征,探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对海冰的影响。结果表明,渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变,在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0.7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示,渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受西太平洋副热带高压(副高)、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控,特别在1972年以后,秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响,可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子,而春季PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。
- 渤海 /
- 海冰 /
- 年际变化 /
- 年代际变化
Abstract: Based on the sea ice grade data in the Bohai Sea during 1951 to 2013, the interannual and interdecadal variations of sea ice in the Bohai Sea are studied using maximum-entropy spectrum analysis, correlation analysis and composite analysis methods. The effects of the local climate, atmospheric circulation, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the sea ice are also discussed respectively. The results showed that sea ice had distinct interannual and interdecadal variations. Especially it jumped from heavy to light in 1972, and the sea ice grade dropped by 0.7 because of the climate jump. The correlation analysis and composite analysis showed that the interannual variations of sea ice had close relationships with local climate, Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), polar vortex and Eurasian circulation. WPSH in autumn, Eurasian and Asian zonal circulation in winter all had important effects on the interannual variations of sea ice, especially after 1972; these are key factors for Bohai Sea seaice forecasting. But the interdecadal variations of sea ice had close relationships with the PDO, ENSO in spring and Western Pacific Subtropical High in winter.
- Bohai Sea /
- sea ice /
- interannual variations /
- interdecadal variations

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