黑潮入侵南海的强弱与太平洋年代际变化及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的关系

杨龙奇; 许东峰; 徐鸣泉; 隋丹丹; 吴品煌

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.07.003

黑潮入侵南海的强弱与太平洋年代际变化及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象的关系

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.07.003

1.
国家海洋局第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 浙江杭州 310012;福州市海洋与渔业技术中心, 福建福州 350026
2.
国家海洋局第二海洋研究所卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 浙江杭州 310012
3.
中国科学院南海海洋研究所热带海洋环境国家重点实验室, 广东广州 510301
4.
福州市海洋与渔业技术中心, 福建福州 350026

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目（2011CB403503，2014CB441501）；我国近海海洋综合调查与评价项目（908-ZC-I-13，908-ZC-Ⅱ-05）；国家海洋局第二海洋研究所基本科研业务专项资金资助项目（JT1206，JG1211）。

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-12-01
- 修回日期: 2014-03-07

A study of correlation between Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the strength of Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea

1.
Sate Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamic, The Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China;Fuzhou Ocean and Fisheries Technology Center, Fuzhou 350026, China
2.
Sate Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamic, The Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China
4.
Fuzhou Ocean and Fisheries Technology Center, Fuzhou 350026, China

摘要

摘要:
在黑潮入侵南海强弱的问题上，到底是太平洋年代际变化（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，PDO）还是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation，ENSO）现象在起关键作用，目前还存在着较大争议。本文先以高盐水作为黑潮入侵强弱的示踪物，用120°E断面的高盐水数据和北赤道流分叉点（North Equator Current Bifurcation，NEC-Y）的南北变动进行相关分析，接着，进一步用学者所用的黑潮入侵指数（KI指数，Kuroshio intrusion index和NEC指数，North Equatorial Current index）与北赤道流分叉点南北变动进行相关分析。最后，用EMD（Empirical Mode Decomposition）方法和相关关系分析法分别分析了PDO指数、Niño3.4指数与北赤道流分叉点南北变动的关系并用NECP风场数据探讨其影响机制。结果表明：（1）通过对120°E断面的高盐水的KI指数、NEC指数与NEC-Y的相关分析，表明了北赤道流分叉点的南北变动能够很好地指代黑潮入侵南海的强弱；（2）通过PDO指数和Niño3.4指数与北赤道流分叉点的南北变动的相关性分析，发现PDO指数、Niño3.4指数与北赤道流分叉点的南北变动都具有较好的相关性，都在0.5水平。这些良好的相关性表明了PDO和ENSO对黑潮入侵南海的强弱都具有重要的影响；（3）当处于厄尔尼诺年（拉尼娜）时，赤道太平洋发生西（东）风异常，使得北赤道流分叉点偏北（南），使吕宋岛东侧的黑潮流速减弱（加强），黑潮入侵南海增强（减弱）；当PDO处于暖（冷）阶段时，会加强热带太平洋的西（东）风异常，使得黑潮入侵南海增强（减弱）。
- 黑潮入侵 /
- 北赤道流分叉点 /
- 太平洋年代际变化 /
- 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动
Abstract:
There is a controversy about the role of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea. In this study, we firstly analyzed the correlation of the subsurface high salinity water in the 120°E section and the North Equatorial Current Bifurcation(NEC-Y). Secondly, we analyzed the relation of Kuroshio intrusion index(KI index), North Equatorial Current index(NEC index)and the North Equatorial Current Bifurcation. Finally, we analyzed the pertinence of PDO index, Niño 3.4 index and the North Equatorial Current bifurcation by methods of EMD and correlation coefficient and analyzed the mechanism by NECP wind data. The result shows: (1) the NEC-Y has a well correlation with subsurface high salinity water in the 120°E section, the KI index and the NEC index. So the NEC-Y can been a good index of the strength of Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea; (2) there is a well 0.5 level of correlation coefficients between NEC-Y and the PDO index, the Niño 3.4 index. These well correlated coefficients show that both PDO and ENSO have important effect on the strength of Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea; (3) in El Niño (La Niña) year, a western (eastern) anomalous wind of the tropical Pacific causes a northward (southward) shift of the North Equatorial Current Bifurcation Latitude. This results in a weakened (enhanced) Kuroshio off Luzon, favoring Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea..While PDO is in the warm (cold) phase, the western (easern) anomalous wind will be strenghened in tropical Pacific and this will cause a northward(southward) shift of the North Equatorial Current Bifurcation Latitude too. So, the strength of Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea will be enhanced (weakened).
- Kuroshio intrusion /
- North Equatorial Current Bifurcation /
- PDO /
- ENSO

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