ENSO事件下西北太平洋远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭栖息地协同变化特征

刘思源; 张衡; 杨超; 方舟

doi:10.12284/hyxb2024018

ENSO事件下西北太平洋远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭栖息地协同变化特征

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024018

刘思源^1,,
张衡²,
杨超^{1, 2},
方舟^{1, 3, 4, 5, 6, ,}

1.
上海海洋大学海洋生物资源与管理学院，上海 201306
2.
中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所，上海 200090
3.
大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室，上海 201306
4.
国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心，上海 201306
5.
农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室，上海 201306
6.
农业农村部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站，上海 201306

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年项目（42306117）；上海市自然科学基金项目（18ZR1449800）；农业部外海渔业开发重点实验室开放课题项目（LOF 2021-01）。

详细信息

作者简介:
刘思源（2000—），男，河南省周口市人，主要从事渔业海洋学研究。E-mail：1419025398@qq.com

通讯作者:
方舟（1988—），男，副教授，研究方向为远洋渔业资源。E-mail: zfang@shou.edu.cn

中图分类号: P722；P714⁺.5；S931
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-05-29
- 修回日期: 2023-10-23
- 网络出版日期: 2023-12-15
- 刊出日期: 2024-01-31

Exhibit covariation characteristics in the habitat changes of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in the northwestern Pacific Ocean under ENSO event

Liu Siyuan^1
,,
Zhang Heng²,
Yang Chao^{1, 2},
Fang Zhou^{1, 3, 4, 5, 6
, ,}

1.
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Science, Shanghai 200090, China
3.
The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
4.
National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China
5.
Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China
6.
Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China

摘要

摘要: 远东拟沙丁鱼（Sardinops melanostictus）和日本鲭（Scomber japonicus）是西北太平洋海域重要的关联经济物种，探究二者栖息地变动的关联性有利于合理开发和管理渔业资源。本研究利用2017−2021年6−11月西北太平洋海域远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭的渔业数据，结合海表面温度、海表面高度和叶绿素a质量浓度3个关键环境变量分别构建不同权重的栖息地模型，并利用2021年的渔业数据进行验证。选取最优模型预测不同厄尔尼诺与南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO）事件下远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭的最适栖息地分布，分析二者在不同ENSO事件下最适栖息地时空分布的差异性和同步性。结果表明：在不同ENSO事件下远东拟沙丁鱼适宜生境面积（高于15%）均高于日本鲭适宜生境面积（低于6%）；但远东拟沙丁鱼在拉尼娜事件下最适栖息地面积增长率高于厄尔尼诺事件，前者增长率为0.197，后者增长率为0.123，相反，日本鲭在拉尼娜事件下增长率低于厄尔尼诺事件，前者增长率为1.114，后者增长率为2.082；当远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭的分布位置接近时，会促进二者栖息地的适宜条件，当二者分布位置相距较远时会一定程度上抑制日本鲭栖息地面积的增加。远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭适宜面积在不同ENSO事件下协同变化特征可能与二者种间关系（竞争/捕食−被捕食）和西北太平洋海域海流分布情况有关。
- 远东拟沙丁鱼 /
- 日本鲭 /
- 西北太平洋 /
- 厄尔尼诺 /
- 拉尼娜 /
- 栖息地
Abstract: The Sardinops melanostictus and the Scomber japonicus are important economic species in the northwestn Pacific Ocean, and exploring the correlation between their habitat changes is conducive to the rational development and management of fishery resources. This study utilizes fishery data of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in the northwestern Pacific Ocean from June to November between 2017 and 2021. By incorporating three key environmental variables, namely sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and chlorophyll a mass concentration, habitat models with different weights are constructed. The models are then validated using fishery data from 2021. The optimal models are selected to predict the most suitable habitat distribution of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus under different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study analyzes the differences and synchronicity in the spatial and temporal distribution of the most suitable habitat between the two species under different ENSO events. The results indicate that the suitable habitat area of Sardinops melanostictus (above 15%) was higher than that of Scomber japonicus (less than 6%) under different ENSO events; however, the growth rate of the most suitable habitat area for Sardinops melanostictus under La Niña events is higher than that of El Niño events. The former has a growth rate of 0.197 and the latter has a growth rate of 0.123, on the contrary, the growth rate of Scomber japonicus under the La Niña event is lower than that of El Niño event, the former has a growth rate of 1.114 and the latter has a growth rate of 2.082; additionally, when the distribution locations of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus are close to each other, it promotes favorable conditions for their habitats. On the other hand, when the distribution locations are far apart, it somewhat inhibits the increase in the suitable habitat area for Scomber japonicus. The co-variation of suitable habitat areas for Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus under different ENSO events may be related to their interspecies relationship (competition/predation-prey) and the distribution of ocean currents in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
- Sardinops melanostictus /
- Scomber japonicus /
- northwestern Pacific Ocean /
- El Niño /
- La Niña /
- habitat area

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图 1 各月环境变量拟合的远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭适宜性指数（SI）曲线

Fig. 1 Suitability index（SI）curve of each environmental variables for Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in different months

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图 2 2021年6−11月远东拟沙丁鱼（a）和日本鲭（b）捕捞努力量与栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）叠加分布

Fig. 2 The habitat suitability index (HSI) overlain with fishing efforts of Sardinops melanostictus (a) and Scomber japonicus (b) from June to November in 2021

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图 3 不同ENSO事件下海表面温度、海表面高度、叶绿素a质量浓度时空分布

Fig. 3 Temporal and spatial distribution of sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and chlorophyll a mass concentration under different ENSO events

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图 4 厄尔尼诺（2018年）和拉尼娜（2021年）事件下远东拟沙丁鱼（a）和日本鲭（b）6−11月适宜栖息地（HSI ≥ 0.6）时空分布

Fig. 4 Temporal and spatial distributions habitat (HSI ≥ 0.6) of Sardinops melanostictus (a) and Scomber japonicus (b) in El Niño event (2018) and La Niña event (2021) from June to November

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图 5 厄尔尼诺（2018年）和拉尼娜（2021年）事件下远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭最适栖息地重心

Fig. 5 Optimal habitat center of gravity of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in El Niño event (2018) and La Niña event (2021)

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图 6 厄尔尼诺（2018年）和拉尼娜（2021年）事件下6−11月远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭适宜栖息地（HSI ≥ 0.6）面积占比

Fig. 6 The proportion of suitable habitat area (HSI ≥ 0.6) of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in EI Niño event (2018) and La Niña event (2021) from June to November

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图 7 不同ENSO气候事件下6−11月远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭最适栖息地中海表面温度、海表面高度、叶绿素a质量浓度均值

Fig. 7 Average values of sea surface temperature, sea surface height and chlorophyll a mass concentration in the optimal habitats of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus from June to November under different ENSO climate events

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表 1 渔业数据中建模和验证样本量

Tab. 1 Model and validate sample sizes in fishery data

物种	年份	样本量
物种	年份	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月
远东拟沙丁鱼	2017	1 520	1 679	1 518	1 374	1 183	1 083
日本鲭	2017	1 616	1 686	1 538	1 311	1 095	1 078
远东拟沙丁鱼	2018	573	916	431	409	345	279
日本鲭	2018	1 681	1 653	1 068	1 047	721	471
远东拟沙丁鱼	2019	470	460	437	417	285	288
日本鲭	2019	510	543	518	439	339	298
远东拟沙丁鱼	2020	806	943	870	619	574	571
日本鲭	2020	636	773	643	534	731	647
远东拟沙丁鱼	2021	1 668	2 247	1 921	1 924	1 596	1 108
日本鲭	2021	886	810	316	374	633	497
注：“样本量”为2017−2021年各月作业天数的总和；2017−2020年的数据为建模数据，2021年的数据为验证数据。

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表 2 不同关键环境变量的不同权重方案

Tab. 2 Different scenarios for the weights of the key environment variables

不同权重方案	海表面温度	海表面高度	叶绿素a质量浓度
方案一	0	1	0
方案二	0	0	1
方案三	0.1	0.8	0.1
方案四	0.1	0.1	0.8
方案五	0.25	0.5	0.25
方案六	0.25	0.25	0.5
方案七	0.5	0.25	0.25
方案八	0.333	0.333	0.333
方案九	0.8	0.1	0.1
方案十	1	0	0

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表 3 远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭SI模型拟合公式

Tab. 3 Fitting formula of SI models for Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus

月份	物种	SI 模型	R²	p
6月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.064 ×（X_SST − 11.584）²]	0.795	<0.05
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 33.686 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.64）²]	0.966	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 40.087 ×（X_SSH − 0.237）²]	0.972	<0.01
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.087 ×（X_SST − 12.2）²]	0.795	<0.05
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 141.335 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.17）²]	0.902	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 81.949 ×（X_SSH − 0.228）²]	0.911	<0.01
7月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.069 ×（X_SST − 16.429）²]	0.966	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 11.607 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.267）²]	0.938	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 54.679 ×（X_SSH − 0.286）²]	0.976	<0.01
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.069 ×（X_SST − 15.658）²]	0.906	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 84.642 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.195）²]	0.883	<0.05
		SI_SSH = exp[− 66.081 ×（X_SSH − 0.3）²]	0.961	<0.01
8月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.052 ×（X_SST − 18.194）²]	0.987	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 204.505 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.113）²]	0.890	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 34.281 ×（X_SSH − 0.303）²]	0.958	<0.01
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.053 ×（X_SST − 18.195）²]	0.957	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 51.625 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.233）²]	0.926	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 48.229 ×（X_SSH − 0.297）²]	0.981	<0.01
9月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.053 ×（X_SST − 15.85）²]	0.775	<0.05
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 16.853 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.096）²]	0.949	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 87.937 ×（X_SSH − 0.293）²]	0.918	<0.01
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.027 ×（X_SST − 17.05）²]	0.880	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 44.535 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.294）²]	0.961	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 30.036 ×（X_SSH − 0.301）²]	0.919	<0.01
10月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.121 ×（X_SST − 13.352）²]	0.875	<0.05
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 83.825 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.271）²]	0.981	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 59.476 ×（X_SSH − 0.318）²]	0.922	<0.01
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.115 ×（X_SST − 12.985）²]	0.944	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 45.493 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.277）²]	0.833	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 67.404 ×（X_SSH − 0.313）²]	0.965	<0.01
11月	远东拟沙丁鱼	SI_SST = exp[− 0.158 ×（X_SST − 10.131）²]	0.709	<0.05
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 180.099 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.392）²]	0.983	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 65.196 ×（X_SSH − 0.317）²]	0.857	<0.05
	日本鲭	SI_SST = exp[− 0.136 ×（X_SST − 10.817）²]	0.735	<0.01
		SI_{Chl a} = exp[− 135.492 ×（X_{Chl a} − 0.19）²]	0.852	<0.01
		SI_SSH = exp[− 54.85 ×（X_SSH − 0.326）²]	0.878	<0.05

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表 4 厄尔尼诺（2018年）和拉尼娜（2021年）事件下6−11月远东拟沙丁鱼和日本鲭各月适宜栖息地（HSI≥0.6）面积增长率

Tab. 4 The growth rate of suitable habitat area (HSI ≥ 0.6) of Sardinops melanostictus and Scomber japonicus in El Niño event (2018) and La Niña event (2021) from June to November

物种	气候事件	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	均值
远东拟沙丁鱼	El Niño	0.170	0.257	0.205	−0.004	−0.012	0.123
远东拟沙丁鱼	La Niña	0.984	0.210	0.080	−0.357	0.067	0.197
日本鲭	El Niño	9.041	0.291	1.240	−0.470	0.309	2.082
日本鲭	La Niña	0.485	0.052	2.826	−0.830	3.038	1.114

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