辽东湾海冰分布面积历史数据重构及其影响因素分析

魏彬航; 李宝辉; 刘煜; 王安良

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023170

辽东湾海冰分布面积历史数据重构及其影响因素分析

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023170

国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室，北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目（42176208）。

详细信息

作者简介:
魏彬航（1999—），女，天津市人，研究方向为渤海海冰数值预报。E-mail：wbh12419957@163.com

通讯作者:
王安良（1982—），高级工程师，研究方向为工程海冰预报。E-mail: wangal@nmefc.cn

中图分类号: P731.15
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-05-23
- 修回日期: 2023-09-04
- 网络出版日期: 2023-11-02
- 刊出日期: 2023-11-30

Reconstruction of sea ice extent in the Liaodong Bay and analysis of its impact factors

Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 辽东湾是我国冬季冰情最严重的海区，大面积海冰覆盖会对海上经济活动产生严重影响。本文以辽东湾海冰为研究对象，基于MODIS卫星影像资料重构了辽东湾2001−2021年海冰分布面积时间序列。同时，确定了辽东湾浮冰范围与海冰分布面积的非线性关系式，并利用此关系式将辽东湾历史海冰最大分布面积延拓至1953年。通过对其年际变化趋势进行研究，获得工程设计重现期辽东湾海冰分布面积。进一步分析了辽东湾海冰最大分布面积的影响因子，结果表明海冰最大分布面积与冻冰度日及北风分量的相关系数达0.96。此外，分析了秋季北极部分海区海冰密集度与辽东湾冬季海冰覆盖程度的相关性。本文成果可为辽东湾海冰长期趋势研究和海冰灾害的预报预警工作提供基本数据支撑。
- 辽东湾 /
- 海冰 /
- 分布面积 /
- 影响因子
Abstract: Liaodong Bay is the most severely ice-covered sea waters in China during winter. The large area of sea ice on the sea surface has significant impacts on maritime economic activities. This study focuses on reconstructing a time series of sea ice extent from 2001 to 2021 for Liaodong Bay based on MODIS satellite images. Meanwhile, a nonlinear relation between the floe ice distance and sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay is figured out, which is used to extend the historical maximum sea ice extent of Liaodong Bay back to 1953. Then, the interannual variation of the maximum sea ice extent is researched to obtain the sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay in the return period of engineering design. The impact factors of the maximum sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay are analyzed, and the results show that the correlation coefficient between the maximum sea ice extent and the freezing degree-days, as well as northerly wind component, reached 0.96. Furthermore, the correlation between the sea ice concentration in some regions of the Arctic during autumn and the winter sea ice extent in the Liaodong Bay is analyzed. Our results provide valuable insights for understanding the trend of sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay and formulating measures for sea ice disaster prevention.
- Liaodong Bay /
- sea ice /
- sea ice extent /
- impact factor

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图 1 辽东湾（白色区域）及测量基线（红色线）

Fig. 1 Liaodong Bay (white area) and the base line (red line)

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图 2 2016年2月1日MODIS卫星影像与海冰边缘分析

Fig. 2 Analysis of MODIS satellite images and sea ice edge on February 1st, 2016

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图 3 2001–2021年12月1日至翌年1月22日（a）和1月23日至3月15日（b）的MODIS卫星影像海冰监测质量情况分布

Fig. 3 The quality of sea ice images from MODIS for December 1st to January 23rd of the following year(a) and January 23rd to March 15th (b) from 2001 to 2021

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图 4 2001−2021年间不同质量海冰数据的占比分布

Fig. 4 The percentage of sea ice data for different qualities from 2001 to 2021

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图 5 浮冰范围与海冰分布面积的幂函数、Langmuir函数拟合结果

Fig. 5 Power law and Langmuir function fitting results for the relationship between the distance of floating ice and sea ice extent

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图 6 2012−2021年通过拟合计算和《中国海洋灾害公报》（2012−2021）^[31] 获得海冰最大分布面积结果对比

Fig. 6 Comparison of maximum sea ice extent from fitting calculation and China’s Ocean Disaster Report (2012−2021)^[31] from 2012 to 2021

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图 7 辽东湾典型年份逐日海冰分布面积对比

Fig. 7 The comparison of daily sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay for typical years

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图 8 1953−2021年辽东湾浮冰外缘线离岸最大距离数据和海冰最大分布面积的年际变化

Fig. 8 Interannual variations of the maximum offshore distance of the marginal ice zone and the maximum ice extent in the Liaodong Bay from 1953 to 2021

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图 9 辽东湾浮冰外缘线离岸最大距离Pearson-III型分布拟合曲线和经验点分布

Fig. 9 The Pearson-III distribution fitting curve and the empirical point distribution of the maximum offshore distance of the marginal ice zone in the Liaodong Bay

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图 10 海冰最大分布面积与累积冻冰度日（a）、海冰最大分布面积与4级以上北风分量频次（b）的关系和2001−2021年辽东湾海冰最大分布面积（c）

Fig. 10 The relationship between maximum sea ice extent with cumulative freezing degree (a), maximum sea ice extentdays with the frequency of wind speeds above level 4 (b), and the maximum annual sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay from 2001 to 2021 (c)

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图 11 辽东湾海冰最大分布面积与9月（a）、10月（b）、11月（c）和12月（d）北极海冰密集度相关系数分布

Fig. 11 Correlation coefficient distribution between maximum sea ice extent in Liaodong Bay and Arctic sea ice concentration on September (a), October (b), November(c), and December (d)

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图 12 巴伦支海−喀拉海与加拿大北极群岛附近海域10月海冰密集度预判1979−2008年辽东湾海冰最大分布面积结果（a）和2009−2021年的拟合结果验证（b）

Fig. 12 Maximum sea ice extent prediction in the Liaodong Bay in 1979−2008 (a) and validation of the fitted results for 2009−2021 (b) based on October sea ice concentration of the Barents Sea-Kara Sea and the Arctic archipelago

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