热带气旋快速加强与海表温度分布统计特征研究

肖婷; 廖菲; 傅桂文; 高晓荣

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023130

热带气旋快速加强与海表温度分布统计特征研究

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023130

肖婷^{1, 3,},
廖菲^1, ,,
傅桂文²,
高晓荣^{1, 3}

1.
广州市气象台，广东广州 511430
2.
广东省佛山市高明区气象局，广东佛山 528500
3.
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室，广东广州 510640

基金项目: 广东省自然科学基金（2019A1515011813）；广州市科技计划（202102080664）；中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室开放基金（J201804）。

详细信息

作者简介:
肖婷（1990-），女，湖北省随州市人，工程师，从事台风预报技术研究。E-mail：578452106@qq.com

通讯作者:
廖菲（1979-），男，江西省赣州市人，博士，主要从事海洋气象研究。E-mail：fliao@gd121.cn

中图分类号: P731.11；P444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-11-01
- 修回日期: 2023-06-07
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-06
- 刊出日期: 2023-09-30

An analysis of tropical cyclones rapid intensification and the statistical characteristics of sea surface temperature distribution

Xiao Ting^{1, 3
,},
Liao Fei^{1
, ,},
Fu Guiwen²,
Gao Xiaorong^{1, 3}

1.
Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 511430, China
2.
Gaoming District Bureau of Meteorology, Foshan 528500, China
3.
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou 510640, China

摘要

摘要: 为加强海表温度对热带气旋快速加强影响的认识，利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和欧洲中尺度天气预报中心提供的海温数据，选取1979−2019年期间的西北太平洋热带气旋，统计分析了海温和热带气旋强度快速变化的特征。研究结果表明：（1）约90%的热带气旋快速加强发生在夏季和秋季，分别占快速加强总次数的32.8%和56.4%，绝大部分热带气旋以跨越1个强度等级的快速加强为主，由强热带风暴快速加强到台风和由台风快速加强到强台风是出现次数较多的两种情况。（2）夏季大于28℃，秋季大于27.5℃的海表温度条件有利于热带气旋快速加强，较低强度等级的热带气旋需要更高的海表温度（> 29℃）才易出现快速加强；热带气旋快速移动有利于其中心处海温维持较高状态。（3）海温的时间变率在±0.2℃/(6 h)内，水平空间梯度低于0.4℃/(°)是热带气旋快速加强的有利条件；热带气旋强度越强，越需要平稳的海表温度环境。（4）热带气旋处于强热带风暴及以上级别时，仅利用海表温度条件对其是否发生快速加强的判断准确性较好。这一工作量化了有利于热带气旋加强的海表温度环境，为业务上基于海表温度定量预报热带气旋强度演变提供了一种技术参考。
- 热带气旋 /
- 海表温度 /
- 快速加强
Abstract: To better understand the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclones rapidly intensifying, the characteristics of rapid changes in sea surface temperature and intensity of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during 1979−2019 were statistically analyzed using the tropical cyclones best track data compiled by the Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration and the sea surface temperature data provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The results indicate the following: (1) About 90% of the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones occurred in summer and autumn, accounting for 32.8% and 56.4% of the total number of rapid intensification respectively. Most tropical cyclones are dominated by rapid intensification across one intensity level, rapid intensification from a severe tropical storm to a typhoon and rapid intensification from a typhoon to a severe typhoon are the two conditions that occur more frequently. (2) The SST conditions greater than 28℃ in summer and 27.5℃ in autumn are conducive to the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Lower intensity of tropical cyclones require higher SST (> 29℃) for rapid intensification. The faster translation speed of tropical cyclones is conducive to maintaining high SST environment at its center. (3) When the time variation of SST is within ±0.2℃/(6 h), the horizontal spatial gradient is less than 0.4℃/(°), which is the favorable condition for the rapid intensification of tropical cyclone; the stronger the tropical cyclone is, the more stable the SST environment is needed. (4) When tropical cyclone is a severe tropical storm or above, it is better to judge whether rapid intensification occurs by using only the SST conditions. This work quantifies the SST environment conducive to tropical cyclone intensification and provides a technical reference for quantitative prediction of tropical cyclone intensity evolution based on SST.
- tropical cyclones /
- sea surface temperature /
- rapid intensification

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图 1 夏季（a）和秋季（b）热带气旋向更高一等级强度快速加强时海温的频次及秋季台风快速加强至强台风时海温与移动速度分布（c）

Fig. 1 Frequency of sea surface temperature when tropical cyclones are rapidly intensifying to upper level in summer (a) and autumn (b), and the distribution of sea surface temperature and translation speed in autumn when typhoons intensify rapidly to severe typhoons (c)

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图 2 夏季（a）和秋季（b）热带气旋强度快速加强前24 h内海温分布

Fig. 2 Distribution of sea surface temperature within 24 h before tropical cyclones rapid intensification in summer (a) and autumn (b)

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图 3 夏季（a）和秋季（b）热带气旋向其更高一等级强度快速加强时海温变率与发生频次的关系

Fig. 3 The relationship between sea surface temperature variability and occurrence frequency when tropical cyclones are rapidly intensifying to upper level in summer (a) and autumn (b)

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图 4 夏季（a）和秋季（b）热带气旋在不同海温变率下强度快速加强的概率

Fig. 4 Probability of tropical cyclones rapid intensification under different sea surface temperature variability in summer (a) and autumn (b)

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图 5 移动位置

Fig. 5 Shift position

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图 6 夏季（a）和秋季（b）热带气旋向其更高一等级强度快速加强时海温水平空间梯度与发生频次的关系

Fig. 6 The relationship between the horizontal spatial gradient of sea surface temperature and occurrence frequency when tropical cyclones are rapidly intensifying to upper level in summer (a) and autumn (b)

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表 1 热带气旋强度快速加强的统计特征

Tab. 1 Statistical characteristics of the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones

快速加强次数	占全部快速加强 TC总数的比例/ %	强度跨越等级数	变化类型	夏季			秋季
快速加强次数	占全部快速加强 TC总数的比例/ %	强度跨越等级数	变化类型	夏季次数	上一等级平均持续时间/h	夏季平均移速 / (km·h⁻¹)	秋季次数	上一等级平均持续时间/h	秋季平均移速 / (km·h⁻¹)
1次	54.0	1个等级	热带低压→热带风暴	3	22.0	19.9	0	0	0
			热带风暴→强热带风暴	17	14.5	16.1	14	22.7	17.6
2次	28.9		强热带风暴→台风	23	19.0	20.4	53	19.8	19.3
2次	28.9		台风→强台风	25	19.0	18.9	49	22.7	19.6
3次及以上	17.1		强台风→超强台风	11	12.5	22.7	23	9.7	21.4
3次及以上	17.1	2个及以上等级	略	3	8.0	21.9	2	12.0	26.2

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表 2 超强台风“奥鹿”快速加强的统计特征

Tab. 2 Statistical characteristics of rapid intensification of Super Typhoon “Noru”

时间（世界时）	级别	中心气压/hPa	是否发生快速加强	海温/℃	海温变率/[℃·(6 h)⁻¹]	空间梯度/ [℃·(°)⁻¹]	预报情况	预报效果
2022−09−22 18:00	热带风暴	998	否	29.6	0.0	0.0	快速加强至强热带风暴	空报
2022−09−23 00:00	热带风暴	998	否	29.6	0.0	0.2	快速加强至强热带风暴	空报
2022−09−23 06:00	热带风暴	998	否	29.5	−0.1	0.1	快速加强至强热带风暴	空报
2022−09−23 12:00	热带风暴	995	否	29.4	−0.1	0.2	快速加强至强热带风暴	空报
2022−09−23 18:00	热带风暴	990	否	29.6	0.2	0.2	快速加强至强热带风暴	空报
2022−09−24 00:00	强热带风暴	985	是	29.3	−0.3	0.4	快速加强至台风	命中
2022−09−24 06:00	台风	975	是	29.4	0.1	0.2	快速加强至强台风	命中
2022−09−24 12:00	强台风	955	是	29.4	0.0	0.2	快速加强至超强台风	命中

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