长江口极端增水非平稳变化特征研究

谢冬梅; 陈永平; 于茜倩; 孙丽; 潘崇伦

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023099

长江口极端增水非平稳变化特征研究

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023099

谢冬梅^{1, 2, 3,},
陈永平^{2, 3, ,},
于茜倩^{2, 3},
孙丽⁴,
潘崇伦⁴

1.
南京水利科学研究院河流海岸研究所，江苏南京 210029
2.
河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210098
3.
河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院，江苏南京 210098
4.
上海市水旱灾害防御技术中心，上海 200050

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2021YFB2600700）；河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项（B200204017）；浙江省水利科技重大项目（RA2202）；南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金（Y223004）

详细信息

作者简介:
谢冬梅（1988-），女，四川省德阳市人，高级工程师，主要从事海洋灾害与防灾减灾方面研究。E-mail：dmxie@nhri.cn

通讯作者:
陈永平，男，教授，主要从事风暴潮灾害预报预警与生态防护方面研究。E-mail: ypchen@hhu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P731.23
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-06-23
- 修回日期: 2023-02-08
- 网络出版日期: 2023-03-03
- 刊出日期: 2023-07-01

Study on the non-stationary characteristics of extreme storm surges along the Changjiang River Estuary

Xie Dongmei^{1, 2, 3
,},
Chen Yongping^{2, 3
, ,},
Yu Qianqian^{2, 3},
Sun Li⁴,
Pan Chonglun⁴

1.
River and Harbor Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3.
College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
4.
Shanghai Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Shanghai 200050, China

摘要

摘要: 本文基于ADCIRC构建适用于长江口的台风暴潮模型，对1979–2019年间长江口台风增水过程进行数值重构；结合非平稳广义极值分布和状态空间模型，构建适用于刻画长江口极端增水非平稳变化的频率统计模型，研判非平稳变化引起的极端增水量值调整情况。结果表明，长江口各验潮站处极端增水的非平稳广义极值分布时变位置参数在2008年前表现为波动特征，2008年后呈现逐渐增大趋势。2008–2019年间各验潮站处极端增水时变位置参数的线性上升率介于0.8～1.2 cm/a之间。基于上述变化趋势，考虑极端增水非平稳变化时长江口各验潮站处百年一遇增水均大于基于平稳假定的推算结果，二者差值介于8～15 cm之间。经分析，2008年后北上到长江口附近海域再转向外海的热带气旋强度有明显增强趋势，致使长江口各验潮站处年第二和第三大值增水增大，这是导致各验潮站处风暴增水极值分布位置参数出现趋势性增大的主要原因。
- 长江口 /
- 极端增水 /
- 非平稳 /
- 极值统计 /
- 状态空间模型
Abstract: Under the background of global climate change, the extreme storm surge events caused by tropical cyclones in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent coastal area present non-stationary feature. In this study, a storm surge model for the Changjiang River Estuary was constructed using the ADCIRC model to reproduce the storm surges during 241 tropical cyclones affecting the Changjiang River Estuary from 1979 to 2019. By combining the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution with the state space approach, a statistical model for capturing the non-stationarity of extreme storm surges was built to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the extreme storm surges in the Changjiang River Estuary and its adjacent coastal area. The statistical model can well reproduce the non-stationary feature of extreme storm surges, which was mainly represented by the time-dependent location parameter. The time-dependent location parameters at the tidal gauge stations were stationary before 2008 and presented increasing trends afterwards, which was mainly caused by the increase of the annual second- and third-largest storm surges. The reoccurrence period of storm surge event with 100-year return period under the stationary assumption was reduced to around 40–80 years, indicating an increased flood risk in the Changjiang River Estuary. Combined with the changes in the intensity and path of the tropical cyclones that caused the annual second- and third-largest storm surges, it was concluded that the increasing trends of extreme storm surges were mainly caused by the increase in the intensity of the tropical cyclone that tracking northward to the offshore of the Changjiang River Estuary and veering eastwards.
- the Changjiang River Estuary /
- extreme storm surges /
- non-stationary variation /
- extreme value statistics /
- state space model

HTML全文

图 1 风暴潮模型网格布置及水深分布

b和d分别为a和c紫色框中网格和地形的局部放大图

Fig. 1 Mesh and bathymetry for storm surge modeling

b and d are the zoom-in mesh and bathymetry within the purple rectangles in a and c, respectively

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图 2 年极端增水样本数r= 3时各验潮站处增水极值分布参数的拟合结果

a. 长江口及附近海域验潮站位置；b. 位置参数；c. 尺度参数；d. 形状参数

Fig. 2 Fitting results of the parameters of GEV distribution for the annual three-largest storm surges at the tide gauges

a. Locations of tide gauges within Changjiang Rvier Estuary and its adjacent area; b. location parameter; c. scale parameter; d. shape parameter

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图 3 PGAS算法用于非平稳位置参数计算验证

Fig. 3 Verification of non-stationary location parameter estimated by PGAS algorithm

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图 4 1909号超强台风“利奇马”期间风速和气压验证

a. 台风路径及强度；b. 风圈半径验证；c. 风速验证；d. 气压验证

Fig. 4 Verification of wind and pressure during the 1909 Super Typhoon Lekima

a. Storm track and intensity; b. verification of different gale-force wind radii; c. verification of wind speed; d. verification of atmospheric pressure

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图 5 天文潮验证结果

Fig. 5 Verification of astronomical tide level

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图 6 1909号超强台风“利奇马”期间增水验证结果

Fig. 6 Verification of storm surge level during the 1909 super Typhoon Lekima

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图 7 各验潮站年前三大值增水及线性趋势

加粗字体表示趋势通过95%显著性检验

Fig. 7 Annual three-largest storm surges and their linear trends

Bold fonts present trends passing 95% significance test

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图 8 非平稳条件下各验潮站处位置参数模拟结果

Fig. 8 Fitting results of location parameters under non-stationary conditions at the tide gauges

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图 9 基于平稳假设的百年一遇增水在考虑非平稳变化下的重现期

Fig. 9 The reoccurrence level of 100-year return levels based on the stationary assumption when considering non-stationary features

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图 10 热带气旋路径分类示意图

1号路径：热带气旋北上到长江口附近海域再转向外海；2号路径：热带气旋北向直行经过长江口外海；3号路径：热带气旋在长江口以南登陆；4号路径：热带气旋在长江口以南登陆并北上经过长江口西侧；5号路径：热带气旋直接登陆长江口；6号路径：热带气旋在长江口以北登陆；7号路径：热带气旋在长江口以南登陆并转向穿过长江口

Fig. 10 Schematic diagram of tropical cyclone track categories

Track type 1: tropical cyclones track northwards until reaching near the Changjiang River Estuary and continue moving offshore; track type 2: tropical cyclones track northwards in the offshore of the Changjiang River Estuary; track type 3: tropical cyclones make landfall to the south of the Changjiang River Estuary; track type 4: tropical cyclones make landfall to the south of the Changjiang River Estuary and continue moving northwards to the west of the Changjiang River Estuary; track type 5: tropical cyclones make landfall at the Changjiang River Estuary; track type 6: tropical cyclones make landfall to the north of the Changjiang River Estuary; track type 7: tropical cyclones make landfall to the south of the Changjiang River Estuary and continue moving northward to the Changjiang River Estuary

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图 11 崇西闸年前三大值增水所对应的热带气旋强度和路径频率分布

a，b. 年第一大值；c，d. 年第二大值；e，f. 年第三大值；a，c，e. 2008年前；b，d，f. 2008年后

Fig. 11 The combined probability of tropical cyclone intensity and path corresponding to the annual three-largest storm surges at Chongxizha tide gauge

a, b. the annual largest storm surge; c, d. the annual second-largest storm surge；e, f. the annual third-largest storm surge；a, c, e. before the year 2008；b, d, f. after the year 2008

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表 1 年极端增水样本数r取值为1、2和3情况下长江口各验潮站处增水的平稳估计结果

Tab. 1 Estimated parameters of the GEV distribution for the annual maxima storm surge under stationary assumption when r= 1, 2, 3, respectively

验潮站	r取值	位置参数 ± 标准误差/cm	尺度参数 ± 标准误差/cm	形状参数 ± 标准误差/cm
崇西闸	1	65.9 ± 4.1	23.0 ± 3.1	0.1 ± 0.1
	2	70.5 ± 3.6	23.7 ± 2.4	0.1 ± 0.1
	3	71.5 ± 3.6	25.9 ± 2.2	0.0 ± 0.1
堡镇	1	62.9 ± 3.9	21.4 ± 2.9	0.0 ± 0.1
	2	66.7 ± 3.4	22.2 ± 2.1	0.0 ± 0.1
	3	67.5 ± 3.3	23.6 ± 1.8	−0.1 ± 0.1
高桥	1	58.4 ± 3.6	19.7 ± 2.7	0.1 ± 0.1
	2	61.9 ± 3.0	20.1 ± 2.0	0.1 ± 0.1
	3	63.3 ± 3.2	23.0 ± 1.8	−0.1 ± 0.1
吴淞口	1	58.4 ± 3.6	20.0 ± 2.8	0.1 ± 0.1
	2	62.2 ± 3.1	20.6 ± 2.1	0.1 ± 0.1
	3	63.6 ± 3.3	23.5 ± 1.9	0.0 ± 0.1
金山嘴	1	77.7 ± 5.5	30.0 ± 4.3	0.1 ± 0.1
	2	82.2 ± 5.0	32.1 ± 3.4	0.1 ± 0.1
	3	81.5 ± 4.7	33.7 ± 3.2	0.1 ± 0.1
芦潮港	1	54.8 ± 3.4	18.0 ± 2.7	0.1 ± 0.2
	2	58.3 ± 2.9	19.1 ± 2.0	0.1 ± 0.1
	3	59.9 ± 2.9	20.9 ± 1.7	0.0 ± 0.1

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表 2 各验潮站处非平稳位置参数M-K检验结果

Tab. 2 Results of M-K test of non-stationary location parameters at the tide gauges

验潮站	p值	z值	突变年份
崇西闸	9.25 × 10⁻¹²	6.8	2008
堡镇	1.61 × 10⁻¹²	7.1	2007
高桥	1.72 × 10⁻¹¹	6.7	2006
吴淞口	1.26 × 10⁻¹¹	6.8	2007
金山嘴	1.41 × 10⁻⁸	5.7	2009
芦潮港	6.99 × 10⁻¹⁰	6.2	2009

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表 3 长江口各验潮站处百年一遇风暴增水比较

Tab. 3 Comparison of storm surge levels with 100-year return period at the tide gauges

验潮站	崇西闸	堡镇	高桥	吴淞口	金山嘴	芦潮港
极值I型/cm	186	159	155	163	256	152
平稳估计/cm	187	156	153	162	260	149
非平稳估计/cm	200	170	166	175	268	161
非平稳和平稳估计差值/cm	12	15	13	12	8	12

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