Storm modeling of 1991−2020 tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the timing of the head-bay maximum surge
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摘要: 研究风暴潮期间的增水过程、振幅和时相特征对提高风暴潮实时预报的精度和减轻灾害损失具有重要价值。采用径流、潮汐、风、波浪耦合模型模拟了孟加拉湾1991−2020年期间对湾顶布里斯瓦尔河口一带增水影响最大的28次热带气旋过程。结果显示，由风暴潮总水位减去天文潮位得到的总增水极值相对于天文潮高潮位的出现时刻集中于涨潮阶段，占总次数的89.3%，并且集中于高潮位前的3 h和4 h。增水过程呈现“（准）孤立波”和“（准）周期性振动”两大类型，其中孤立波形式的增水过程有的在涨潮阶段便完成，也有的持续一个完整的涨、落潮阶段。风暴潮增水−天文潮相互作用曲线具有与天文潮同样周期的振动特征，其振幅与潮差的大小相关，呈现出“涨峰−落谷”与“涨谷−落峰”两种类型，二者具有180°的相位差。热带气旋的行进方向与潮流同逆向、登陆时的潮相、海岸陷波（边缘波）的形成与传播等是决定总增水极值时相特征的主要动力机制。Abstract: The surge process, magnitude and timing are of critical importance for accurate storm prediction and warning as well as hazard mitigation. A total of 28 tropical cyclones that most affected the head Bay of Bengal during 1991−2020 are selected and simulated with interactive forces including wind, tide, wave and river discharge. The occurrence frequencies of the maximum surge cluster in the rising tide, amounting to 89.3%, mostly 3 h and 4 h before the peak tide. The larger maximum surges are associated with phase shift of storm tide from astronomical tide. The surge processes can be classified into “(quasi-) solitary wave” and “(quasi-) periodic” oscillations. The solitary-wave-like surge may last only the rising tide or both the rising tide and the falling tide. The non-linear interactions between the storm surge and astronomical tide have the same period of a semi-diurnal tide, and their amplitudes are controlled by tidal range. The surge-tide interaction curves demonstrate two types: one is “peak in rising tide and trough in falling tide”, the other is the opposite. They are 180°out of phase, i.e. 6 h for a semi-diurnal tide. The advancing direction of cyclones relative to tidal current, the tidal phase at a cyclone landfall and the formation & propagation of trapped edge surge waves are the dominant mechanism to determine the timing of maximum surges.
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Key words:
- Bay of Bengal /
- storm surge /
- FVCOM /
- maximum surge /
- timing /
- tide-surge interaction /
- edge wave
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图 1 风暴潮、波浪数值模型模拟范围
包括验潮站吉大港和赫普帕拉、海洋气象公司（OWI）波浪后报点及布里斯瓦尔河口
Fig. 1 Simulation domain of the storm-surge and wave model
Including the tidal gauge stations of Chittagong and Khepupara, the OWI wave hindcast site and the Buriswar Estuary
图 2 孟加拉湾1991−2020年影响湾顶布里斯瓦尔河口的主要热带气旋路径（来源：IMD）
Fig. 2 Tracks of selected tropical cyclones influencing the Buriswar Estuary at the head of Bengal Bay during 1991−2020 (source: IMD)
图 3 孟加拉湾部分热带气旋吉大港站水位、增水（a, b）及OWI和ERA5波浪后报点的有效波高（c, d）验证
Fig. 3 Calibrations of storm water level and surge height at Chittagong gauge station (a, b), and significant wave height at OWI and ERA5 hindcast site (c, d) for selected cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
图 4 孟加拉湾湾顶赫普帕拉验潮站1987−2000年观测的总增水极值时刻（a）与数值模拟的布里斯瓦尔河口1991−2020年热带气旋总增水极值时刻（b）频率分布
0时刻表示天文潮高潮位，负值表示涨潮阶段，正值表示落潮阶段
Fig. 4 Occurrence frequencies of maximum total surges before peak tide of observed data (1987−2000) at the Khepupara gauge station (a) and of the modeled 1991−2020 cyclones at the Buriswar Estuary (b)
Note 0 h represents the peak tide, negative hrs are for rising tide while positive hrs are for falling tide
图 5 锡德热带气旋路径及布里斯瓦尔河口一带水域的高潮位分布（2007年11月15日17时）
Fig. 5 The track of Sidr cyclone and the high water level at Buriswar Estuary (17:00, Nov. 15, 2007)
图 6 布里斯瓦尔河口两种代表性增水过程
c. 孤立波；d. 周期性振动。图中的“天文潮+风”与“天文潮+风+浪”曲线由于数值非常接近，几乎重叠
Fig. 6 Two representative surge wave oscillations at Buriswar Estuary
c. Solitary wave; d. periodic oscillation. The curve of “tide+wind” is almost covered by that of “tide+wind+wave”due to very minor difference
图 7 布里斯瓦尔河口准孤立波增水过程
图中的“天文潮+风”与“天文潮+风+浪”曲线由于数值非常接近，几乎重叠
Fig. 7 Quasi-solitary surge waves at Buriswar Estuary
The curve of “tide+wind” is almost covered by that of “tide+wind+wave” due to very minor difference
图 8 “涨峰−落谷”型增−潮相互作用曲线
Fig. 8 “Peak in rising-trough in falling” surge-tide interaction curves
图 9 “落峰−涨谷”型增−潮相互作用曲线
Fig. 9 “Peak in falling-trough in rising” surge-tide interaction curve
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