水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响

龚彩霞; 陈新军; 高峰; 余为

doi:10.12284/hyxb2022134

水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134

龚彩霞^1,,
陈新军^{1, 2, 3},
高峰^{1, 2, 3, ,},
余为^{1, 2, 3}

1.
上海海洋大学海洋科学学院，上海 201306
2.
上海海洋大学国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心，上海 201306
3.
上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室，上海 201306

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（41876141，41906073）。

详细信息

作者简介:
龚彩霞（1986-），女，湖南省益阳市人，博士研究生，研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail: cxgong@shou.edu.cn

通讯作者:
高峰，男，讲师，研究方向为渔场预报及渔业GIS。E-mail: gaofeng@shou.edu.cn

中图分类号: S932.4
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- 文章访问数: 356
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-08-14
- 修回日期: 2020-01-17
- 网络出版日期: 2022-07-01
- 刊出日期: 2022-07-01

Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Gong Caixia^1
,,
Chen Xinjun^{1, 2, 3},
Gao Feng^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
Yu Wei^{1, 2, 3}

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China

摘要

摘要: 根据影响西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地分布的主导环境因子—海表面温度，基于最大熵模型，利用1996−2005年气候历史数据和两种不同情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的气候预估数据，分析了1996−2005年、2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年主要捕捞月份（7−10月）柔鱼潜在栖息地变化。结果表明，柔鱼渔场纬度方向空间分布呈季节性南北移动；随着未来气候变化，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下，2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布较1996−2005年7−10月均呈现向北极移动趋势，适宜面积增加。推测柔鱼渔场季节性南北移动可能受各月适宜海表面温度范围变化的影响，在RCP4.5情景下，到21世纪末，各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动1°～2°，适宜面积增加3%～13%；在RCP8.5情景下，到21世纪末，各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动3°～5°，适宜面积增加42%～80%。
- 气候变化 /
- 海表面温度 /
- 最大熵模型 /
- 柔鱼 /
- 潜在栖息地分布
Abstract: Based on the sea surface temperature (SST), which is the most dominant environmental climate factor affecting the distribution of squid, the potential habitat changes of Ommastrephes bartramii in July to October in 1996−2005, 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 are analyzed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with the historical climate data from 1996 to 2005 and the projection climate data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the fishing grounds of O. bartramii performs a seasonal north-south migration. Meanwhile, as the seasonal north-south migration of O. bartramii may be affected by the suitable SST range in fishing season, with the feature climate change the potential habitat distribution of O. bartramii from July to September in 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 will move northward and the suitable habitat area will increase compare to 1996−2005 under both scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.0. Under scenario of RCP4.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 1°−2° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 3%−13% by the end of the 21st century. Under scenario of RCP 8.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 3°−5° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 42%−80% by the end of the 21st century.
- climate change /
- sea surface temperature /
- maximum entropy model /
- Ommastrephes bartramii /
- potential habitat distribution

HTML全文

图 1 1996−2005年7−10月中国鱿钓船各月柔鱼渔场作业分布

Fig. 1 Monthly distributions of Ommastrephes bartramii fishing grounds for the Chinese squid-jigging vessels from July to October of 1996−2005

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 7−10月柔鱼渔场月均海表面温度（SST）年代际变化预测

Fig. 2 Monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) for fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜性指数对海表面温度（SST）的响应曲线

红色为MaxEnt模型10次运算平均值；蓝色为标准差

Fig. 3 Monthly response of potential habitat suitability index for Ommastrephes bartramii to sea surface temperature (SST) from July to October of 1996−2005

Red represent mean of the 10 replicate MaxEnt model runs; blue represent the standard deviation

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜面积比年代际变化预测（相比于2000年）

Fig. 4 Change in proportion of projected suitable habitat area of Ommastrephes bartramii (compared to what was available in 2000)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2000年、2025年、2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜性指数分布

Fig. 5 Potential habitat suitability index distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October in 2000, 2025, 2055 and 2095

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 气候变化情景下柔鱼渔场海表面温度（SST）上升情况（相比于2000年）

Fig. 6 Sea surface temperature (SST) rising in fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii under change scenarios (compared to what was available in 2000)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的MaxEnt模型统计测试结果

Tab. 1 Summary statistics derived from MaxEnt models for squid’s potential habitat from July to October of 1996−2005

月份样本总数（N） AUC值标准差（SD）

7月 124 0.938 0.006
8月 97 0.943 0.008
9月 88 0.950 0.006
10月 87 0.949 0.006

下载: 导出CSV

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