Improved estimation method of retreat onset dates based on sea ice concentration
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摘要: 海冰融化过程以正反馈的形式影响着海洋的热量吸收，对北极生态环境的变化和经济活动的开展起着重要作用。基于1979–2018年北冰洋逐日海冰密集度数据，本文综合考虑不同海域海冰冰况等因素，对北冰洋边缘海海冰消退起始时间的判别方法进行了改进。通过不同的方案对比分析表明，改进后的方法能够反映不同海域、不同年份冰情的变化；并且可消除一些天气扰动现象的干扰，避免过早地判别消退起始时间。应用本方法分析发现北冰洋各边缘海消退起始时间存在提前的趋势，与融化起始时间的提前趋势较为一致。但是不同海域提前程度存在明显差异，喀拉海和楚科奇海提前消退的趋势最强，达到了9 d/(10 a)，而东西伯利亚海消退提前趋势最弱，只有4 d/(10 a)，区域间的差异逐渐增大。海冰消退起始时间存在显著的年际差异，各边缘海的标准差均在15 d左右，近10年中消退最早与最晚之间的差值最大可达50 d，出现在波弗特海。Abstract: The melting of sea ice affects the ocean heat absorption in the form of positive feedback, and plays an important role in the changes of the Arctic environment and economic activities in the Arctic region. Based on the daily sea ice concentration data of the Arctic Ocean from 1979 to 2018, the estimation method of sea ice retreat onset dates in the Arctic marginal sea was improved by comprehensively considering the factors such as sea ice conditions and so on in different seas. Comparative analyses of different methods show that this improved method can reflect the changes of ice conditions in different sea areas and different years, and can eliminate some influences of weather disturbance on the estimation of retreat onset, so as to avoid premature estimation results. By using this method, it is found that the retreat onset dates of every Arctic marginal sea are generally advanced. The advanced trends of retreat onset dates are generally the same as advanced trends of melt onset dates. However, different sea areas have different degrees of advancement. The Kara Sea and the Chukchi Sea have the strongest trend of early retreating, reaching 9 d/（10 a）, while the East Siberian Sea has the weakest trend, only 4 d/（10 a）. The difference of retreat onset dates gradually increases between these regions. There are significant interannual variations in the retreat onset dates, the standard deviations of each marginal sea are about 15 d. In the past decade, the difference between the earliest and the latest retreating reaches 50 d, which appeared in the Beaufort Sea.
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图 1 研究区域
不同的颜色区分了北冰洋内各子区域的界限
Fig. 1 Study areas
Different colors distinguish the boundaries of subregions in the Arctic Ocean
图 2 1979–2018年喀拉海消退起始时间判别结果
Fig. 2 Estimated results of retreat onset dates in the Kara Sea during 1979–2018
图 3 2008年、2012年喀拉海空间平均海冰密集度时间序列
Fig. 3 Time series of spatial averaged sea ice concentration in the Kara Sea in 2008 and 2012
图 4 2017年3–4月喀拉海海冰密集度空间分布
Fig. 4 Spatial distributions of sea ice concentration in the Kara Sea during March and April 2017
图 5 2017年喀拉海空间平均海冰密集度时间序列
Fig. 5 Time series of spatial averaged sea ice concentration in the Kara Sea in 2017
图 6 1979–2017年AHRA与SICA判别的消退起始时间结果对比
时间从1月1日起算
Fig. 6 Annual retreat onset dates estimated by AHRA and SICA during 1979–2017
It starts on January 1st
图 7 1996年东西伯利亚海空间平均海冰密集度时间序列
Fig. 7 Time series of spatial averaged sea ice concentration in the East Siberian Sea in 1996
图 8 1979–1988年及2009–2018年各海域消退起始时间平均值与标准差
Fig. 8 Mean and standard deviation of retreat onset dates in different seas during 1979–1988 and 2009–2018
表 1 1979−2017年SICA判别的消退起始时间与AHRA方法的平均值与趋势对比
Tab. 1 Mean and trend differences of retreat onset dates estimated by SICA and AHRA during 1979−2017
海域 平均值/d 趋势/（d·（10 a）−1） AHRA SICA AHRA SICA 楚科奇海 137±13 147±15 –8* –9* 东西伯利亚海 148±14 165±16 –9* –4* 拉普捷夫海 143±12 153±18 –7* –8* 喀拉海 126±14 140±16 –9* –9* 波弗特海 148±10 157±17 –7* –7* 注：*表示变化趋势通过95%置信度检查。时间从1月1日起算。 
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