The study of the trends of tidal amplitudes of major constituents in the South China Sea
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摘要: 潮汐变化研究对于海洋工程、沿海地区洪涝灾害预防、海上交通等各个方面都有着重要的意义。由于验潮站都集中在近海，所以之前潮汐变化研究主要集中在近海海域。相比之下，深海地区由于长期高频水位观测的缺乏导致相关的潮汐变化研究非常少。基于近海验潮站数据和深海卫星高度计数据，本文首次用非平稳潮汐调和分析工具包S_TIDE提取了南海4大主要分潮(M2、S2、K1、O1)振幅的长期趋势。研究发现在南海大部分地区，4大主要分潮的振幅都是比较稳定的，不存在显著的上升趋势或下降趋势。在南海少部分地区4大主要分潮的振幅存在显著的趋势，最大的上升趋势可达2.91 mm/a，最大的下降趋势可达3.50 mm/a。该海域潮汐的长期趋势可能与内潮海表面信号的变化有关。卫星观测到的潮汐既包含正压潮，也包含内潮海表面信号。南海作为全球内潮活动最活跃的海域之一，其内潮海表面信号是非常显著的。而内潮对海洋层化的变化是非常敏感的，海洋层化的变化会影响内潮的生成、传播和耗散以及内潮在海表的显示，最终引起该海域潮汐振幅的长期趋势。Abstract: The study of tidal changes is of great significance in marine engineering, marine mapping as well as marine transportation. Because nearly all tide gauges are located in the coastal waters, previous studies mainly focus on tidal changes in the shallow waters. In the deep sea, due to the lack of long-term high-frequency sea level observations, tidal changes are remained unclear. Based on the tide gauge observations and satellite altimeter data, non-stationary tidal harmonic analysis toolbox S_TIDE to extract the long-term trend of amplitudes of four major constituents in the South China Sea is first used in this paper. Results show that in most areas of the South China Sea, the amplitudes of four major constituents are stable and have no significant positive or negative trends. In minor areas of the South China Sea, the amplitudes of four major constituents have significant trends. The largest positive trends can reach 2.91 mm/a and the largest negative trends can reach 3.50 mm/a. The long-term trends of tidal amplitudes in this area may be related to the change of the surface expression of internal tides. The tides observed by satellite contain not only barotropic tides but also the surface expression of internal tides. The internal tides as well as their surface expression in the South China Sea are strongest in the world. The changes of ocean stratification can influence the generation, propagation and dissipation of internal tides as well as their surface expression and eventually induce the long-term trends of tidal amplitudes in the South China Sea.
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Key words:
- South China Sea /
- the long-term trend of tides /
- satellite altimeter /
- S_TIDE /
- internal tides
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图 1 南海水深示意图（a），南海验潮站分布（红色点）和卫星观测分布（b）
蓝色线为卫星轨道，黑色点为本文筛选的高质量的卫星数据点
Fig. 1 The bathymetry of the South China Sea (a), the locations of tide gauges (red dots) as well as satellite altimeter data (b)
Blue lines represent the satellite tracks, back dots are selected data with high quality
图 2 T_TIDE得到的QUARRY BAY验潮站M2分潮振幅变化（红线）以及拟合结果（黑线）
Fig. 2 The variations of M2 component amplitude at QUARRY BAY obtained by T_TIDE (red line) and the results of nodal fit (black line)
图 3 卫星观测到14.16°N，113.62°E的海平面高度异常（蓝色线）
红色线和黑色线分别是采用CHA和EHA（2个独立点）回报的水位
Fig. 3 Satellite-observed sea level anomalies (blue line) at 14.16°N, 113.62°E
The hindcast obtained by classical harmonic analysis (red line) and enhanced harmonic analysis (black line, two independent points)
图 4 CHA和EHA反演的14.16°N，113.62°E处M2分潮的A和B（实线）以及它们的95%置信区间（虚线）
Fig. 4 A and B of M2 component (solid line) and 95% confidence intervals (dash lines) obtained by classical harmonic analysis and enhanced harmonic analysis at 14.16°N, 113.62°E
图 5 S_TIDE提取的14.16°N，113.62°E处的非线性变化的M2和S2分潮振幅（红线）和其线性拟合结果（黑线）
Fig. 5 The nonlinear variations of the amplitudes of M2 and S2 component (red lines) and the results of linear fit (black lines) obtained by S_TIDE at 14.16°N, 113.62°E
图 6 南海中央深海海盆M2和S2分潮振幅线性趋势
Fig. 6 The linear trends of M2 and S2 component amplitudes in the central deep sea basin of South China Sea
图 7 南海中央深海海盆K1和O1分潮振幅线性趋势
Fig. 7 The linear trends of K1 and O1 component amplitudes in the central deep sea basin of South China Sea
表 1 南海长期验潮站信息
Tab. 1 The information of long-term tide gauges in the South China Sea
站点名称 UHSLC编号 本文的编号 纬度 经度 年份跨度 CENDERING 320 1 5.27°N 103.19°E 1984−2015年 KUANTAN 322 2 3.98°N 103.43°E 1983−2015年 TIOMAN 323 3 2.81°N 104.14°E 1985−2015年 SEDILI 324 4 1.93°N 104.12°E 1986−2015年 KUKUP 325 5 1.33°N 103.44°E 1985−2015年 GETING 326 6 6.23°N 102.11°E 1986−2015年 KO LAK 328 7 11.80°N 99.82°E 1985−2019年 QUARRY BAY 329 8 22.30°N 114.22°E 1986−2019年 KAOHSIUNG 340 9 22.62°N 120.28°E 1980−2016年 MANILA 370 10 14.59°N 120.97°E 1984−2015年 KOTA KINABALU 386 11 5.98°N 116.07°E 1987−2015年 BINTULU 387 12 3.22°N 113.07°E 1992−2015年 SANDAKAN 389 13 5.81°N 118.07°E 1993−2015年 TANJONGPAGAR 699 14 1.26°N 103.85°E 1984−2016年 
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表 2 从长期验潮站得到的南海主要分潮振幅和平均海平面的趋势
Tab. 2 The trend of major constituents’ tidal amplitudes and mean sea level obtained from long-term tide gauges in the South China Sea
站点名称 M2分潮振幅趋势/(mm·a−1) S2分潮振幅趋势/(mm·a−1) K1分潮振幅趋势/(mm·a−1) O1分潮振幅趋势/(mm·a−1) 平均海平面趋势/(mm·a−1) CENDERING 0.17 − − − 3.41 KUANTAN 0.40 − − − 3.25 TIOMAN 0.33 − − − 3.20 SEDILI − − −0.39 − 2.75 KUKUP 0.44 0.39 − − 3.71 GETTING 0.58 0.26 0.31 0.14 3.27 KO LAK 0.14 − − − 5.98 QUARRY BAY −0.96 −0.45 −0.61 −0.50 1.99 KAOHSIUNG 0.30 − − − −0.47 MANILA − − 0.46 0.23 12.94 KOTA KINABALU − − − − 4.46 BINTULU − − − − 4.80 SANDAKAN − − − − 5.06 TANJONGPAGAR − −0.18 0.24 0.26 3.38 注：−代表趋势不显著。
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表 3 从卫星高度计观测得到的南海中央深海海盆主要分潮振幅和平均海平面的趋势统计结果
Tab. 3 The trend of major constituents, tidal amplitudes and mean sea level in the central deep sea basin of South China Sea obtained from satellite altimeter data
分潮 趋势不显著的
点个数正趋势的
点个数负趋势的
点个数所有点趋势平均值/
(mm·a−1)所有点趋势最大值/
(mm·a−1)所有点趋势最小值/
(mm·a−1)M2 1 293 216 91 0.57 2.80 −1.61 S2 1 344 192 64 0.51 1.85 −1.94 K1 1 031 243 326 −0.17 2.91 −3.50 O1 1 417 61 122 −0.37 2.22 −1.93 平均海平面 0 1 600 0 5.61 10.55 1.29
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