Spatial-temporal characteristic of tropical cyclone disasters in China during 1984−2017
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摘要: 本文基于1984−2017年热带气旋灾情资料和中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径资料，分析了中国热带气旋灾害的时空特征，比较了不同盛行路径下热带气旋灾害的差异，探讨了盛行路径下热带气旋陆上持续时间变化及灾害潜在风险。结果表明：（1）1984−2017年，直接经济损失呈现上升趋势，但该损失在国民生产总值中占比和死亡人数则呈下降趋势。（2）3类盛行路径热带气旋直接经济损失具有区域性差别。近海转向热带气旋登陆中国的数目少、灾害轻，西行和西北行的热带气旋登陆中国的数目多、范围广、灾害重。其中西行热带气旋主要影响广东、广西和海南，西北行热带气旋主要影响广东、福建和浙江。（3）台风潜在风险影响因子—热带气旋陆上平均持续时间，近几十年来增加趋势显著，但不同盛行路径陆上平均持续时间增加原因不一。近海转向的热带气旋陆上平均持续时间增加与陆上平均移速减小有关，西行和西北行的热带气旋陆上平均持续时间增加主要由陆上平均移动距离增加所致。Abstract: Based on tropical cyclone (TC) disaster data and the best-track database from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI) during 1984 to 2017, this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of TC disaster in China and their differences for the three prevailing tracks, along with the discussion of the overland duration and its potential risk. Main results of this study were summarized as follows: (1) There was a significant upward trend with direct TC-associated economic losses, while the proportion of losses to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the deaths showed a downward trend. (2) TC-associated economic losses accompanied with the three prevailing TC tracks showed a substantial difference. The recurving TCs tended to be less and lower impact, while westward and west-northward TCs appeared to be more and higher impact in China. Particularly, more frequent TCs with westward movement affected the Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan provinces. TCs tending to west-northward tracks mainly caused a serious TC-associated disaster in Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces. (3) The average overland duration, as a potential index for TC-associated disaster, showed an upward trend. Note that the reasons on the changes of TC overland duration for the three prevailing tracks appeared to be different. The increased average overland duration for recurving TCs were likely to relate to the decreased in TC average overland translation speed. In contrast, the increased average overland duration of westward and west-northward moving TCs were possibly due to the increased average distance that TCs traveled over land.
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图 1 1984−2017年因TC导致的死亡人数（a）、直接经济损失（b）和原始直接经济损失在GDP中百分比（c）
直线表示线性趋势，“Z”为M-K检验统计量，*表示趋势线通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 1 Time series of deaths (a), direct economic losses (b) and original direct economic losses proportion to GDP (c) caused by affecting TCs during 1984−2017
The straight line indicates the linear trend, Z is M-K trend test score, the Z-value with symbol “*” indicates the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
图 2 1984−2017年影响和登陆中国的TC数目（a）、TC平均登陆风速（b）和TC平均登陆气压（c）
a中实线和虚线分别代表影响和登陆TC的线性趋势；b和c中直线表示相应序列线性趋势；“Z”为M-K检验统计量；*表示趋势线通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 2 The number of affecting and landfalling TCs (a), average landing wind speed (b) and landing pressure (c) of landfalling TCs from 1984 to 2017
The solid dotted line in a represent the linear trend of affecting and landfalling TCs, respectively; the lines in b and c indicate the linear trend of the corresponding sequences Z is M-K trend test score; the Z-value with symbol “*” indicates the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
图 3 1984−2017年中国各省（自治区、直辖市）累计登陆TC数（a）和影响TC数（b）
统计结果不包含港澳台
Fig. 3 Distribution of total landfalling (a) and affecting (b) TC numbers in China during 1984−2017
The statistical results do not include the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
图 4 1984−2017年中国各省（自治区、直辖市）因TC造成的年均直接经济损失（a）、CPI标准化年均经济损失（2017 RMB）（b）和年均死亡人数（c）
统计结果不包含港澳台
Fig. 4 Distribution of annual mean direct economic losses (a), CPI normalized economic losses (2017 RMB) (b) and deaths (c) caused by TCs in China during 1984−2017
The statistical results do not include the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
图 5 1984−2017年影响TC年平均出现频数分布（a−d）和TC生成位置（e−h）
e−h中黑色点表示所有影响TC的生成位置，曲线表示生成位置的25%、50%和75%概率密度分布，三角形表示TC平均生成位置
Fig. 5 Distribution of annual mean frequency (a−d) and genesis locations (e−h) of the affecting TCs during 1984−2017
The affecting TC genesis points are shown in black dots and its kernel density estimation in 25%, 50%, and 75% contours along with the averaged genesis location of these affecting TCs in triangle in e−h
图 6 1984−2017年影响和登陆中国的近海转向（a）、西行（b）和西北行（c）TC个数
实线表示影响TC的线性趋势，虚线表示登陆TC线性趋势，“Z”为M-K检验统计量，趋势线均未通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 6 The number of affecting and landing TCs in China on the tracks of recurve (a), westward (b) and northwestward (c) during 1984−2017
The solid/dotted line represents the linear trend of affecting/landfalling TCs, Z is the M-K trend test score, the Z-value with the symbol “*” indicates the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
图 7 1984−2017年3类盛行路径下因TC导致的死亡人数（a−c）、直接经济损失（d−f）和原始直接经济损失在GDP中百分比（g−i）
直线表示相应序列的线性趋势，“Z”为M-K检验统计量，*表示趋势线通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 7 Time series of deaths (a−c), direct economic losses (d−f) and original direct economic losses proportion to GDP (g−i) caused by affecting TCs for the three prevailing tracks during 1984−2017
The straight line indicates the linear trend, Z is the M-K trend test score, the Z-value with the symbol “*” indicates the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
图 8 1984−2017年3类盛行路径下各年代平均的影响TC频数（a）、死亡人数（b）、直接经济损失（c）和直接经济损失在GDP中百分比（d）
Fig. 8 Decadal changes in the mean of affecting TC numbers (a), deaths (b), direct economic losses (c) and the percentage of direct economic losses to GDP (d) for the three prevailing tracks during 1984−2017
图 9 1984−2017年3类路径下中国各省（自治区、直辖市）累计登陆TC数（a−c）和影响TC数（d−f）
统计结果不包含港澳台
Fig. 9 Distribution of landfalling (a−c) and affecting (d−f) TC numbers in China for the three prevailing tracks during 1984−2017
The statistical results do not include the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
图 10 1984−2017年3类路径下中国各省（自治区、直辖市）因TC造成的年均直接经济损失（a−c）、CPI标准化年均经济损失（2017人民币水平）（d−f）和年均死亡人数（g−i）
统计结果不包含港澳台
Fig. 10 Distribution of annual mean direct economic losses (a−c), CPI normalized economic losses (2017 RMB) (d−f) and deaths (g−i) caused by TCs in China for the three prevailing tracks during 1984−2017
The statistical results do not include the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan
图 11 1979−2018年在中国陆上的TC平均持续时间（a）、平均移动距离（b）、平均移动速度（c）、引导气流线性变化趋势（d）、TC平均纬向移动速度（e）和平均经向移动速度（f）
粗线表示5年滑动平均，虚线表示滑动平均序列的线性趋势，“Z”为M-K检验统计量，*表示趋势线通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 11 Time series of annual mean overland duration (a), distance (b) and translation speed (c) of TCs in China, the trends in large scale steering flows (d), and the zonal (e) and meridional (f) TC translation speed during 1979−2018
Thick lines are the 5-years running average along its linear trend in dashed lines. Z is the M-K trend test score, the Z-value with the symbol “*” indicates the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
图 12 1979−2018年3类移动路径下平均每个TC在中国陆上的持续时间（a−c）、移动距离（d−f）、移动速度（g−i）、纬向移动速度（j−l）和经向移动速度（m−o）
粗线表示5年滑动平均，虚线表示滑动平均序列的线性趋势，“Z”为M-K检验统计量，*表示趋势线通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 12 Time series of annual mean overland duration (a−c), distance (d−f), translation speed (g−i), and the zonal (j−l) and meridional (m−o) TC translation speed in China for the three prevailing tracks during 1979−2018
Thick lines are the 5-years running average, the straight line indicates the linear trend, Z is the M-K trend test score, the Z-value with the symbol “*” indicates that the linear trend is significant at a 95% significance test
表 1 1984−2017年影响和登陆中国的TC数目与灾害的年代变化
Tab. 1 Decadal change in mean of TC numbers and the associated disaster in China from 1984 to 2017
时间 TC影响平均数/（个·a−1） TC登陆平均数/（个·a−1） 死亡人数
/（个·a−1）直接经济
损失/（亿元·a−1）平均CPI标准化经济
损失/（亿元·a−1）原始直接经济损失占
GDP的比例/%1984−1990年 8.6 6.9 588 47.6 197.9 0.36 1991−2000年 7.1 6.6 498 292.0 472.8 0.49 2001−2010年 8.0 6.9 301 420.6 553.9 0.20 2011−2017年 8.4 6.3 90 721.7 765.7 0.12 
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表 2 1984−2017年盛行路径下影响TC活动特征
Tab. 2 Characteristics of all affecting TCs and of affecting TCs for three prevailing tracks during 1984−2017
盛行路径 总路径 近海转向 西行 西北行 TC影响数/个 270 62 104 104 TC登陆数/个 227 49 93 85 平均最大风速/（m·s−1） 39.9 35.8 43.3 40.3 平均登陆风速/（m·s−1） 28.6 26.7 30.3 28 平均持续时间/h 120.3 123 136.7 108.1 陆上平均持续时间/h 15 14.8 14.5 15.7
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表 3 1984−2017年造成中国直接经济损失最大的10个TC
Tab. 3 Top 10 TCs with the greatest direct economic losses in China during 1984−2017
年份 编号 命名 盛行路径 登陆风速/
(m·s−1)陆上持续
时间/h经济损失/
亿元单个TC经济损失占
总TC经济损失的比例 /%死亡人数 2008 0814 黑格比（Hagupit） 西行 48 18 801.7 76.7 35 1996 9608 赫伯（Herb） 西行 40 30 652.7 67.9 779 2013 1323 菲特（Fitow） 西北行 42 12 631.4 50.1 11 2012 1210 达维（Damrey） 西行 35 18 455.6 42.8 20 2014 1409 威马逊（Rammasun） 西行 60 36 446.5 64.4 73 1997 9711 温妮（Winnie） 西北行 40 66 436.3 80.1 248 2006 0604 碧利斯（Bilis） 西北行 30 24 383.1 47.9 863 2012 1211 海葵（Haikui） 西行 42 36 375.9 35.3 6 2016 1614 莫兰蒂（Meranti） 西北行 50 18 316.4 41.3 38 2015 1522 彩虹（Mujiae） 西北行 52 24 300.1 43.9 20
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