Experiment of assimilating Doppler radar data in Typhoon Saomai based on the different initial conditions
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摘要: 本文针对2006年登陆我国的超强台风“桑美”，分别采用美国国家环境预报中心的全球预报系统(Global Forecasting System, GFS)再分析资料和日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA)区域客观再分析资料作为背景场，利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)及其三维变分同化系统进行多普勒雷达资料同化和数值模拟试验，考察不同的背景场条件下雷达资料同化对台风初始场、内部结构及其随后确定性预报的影响。结果表明：GFS试验和JMA试验在同化了雷达资料之后分析出的台风700 hPa风场和500 hPa高度场相比其初始场均有所增强，JMA试验在3 h同化窗内的均方根误差和最小海平面气压的改进效果均比GFS试验显著，同时对台风动力和热力结构的改进效果也优于GFS试验；JMA试验对台风降水、路径、强度的预报均优于GFS试验，且能预报出台风前沿的降水，更加接近观测实况。Abstract: Based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, the numerical simulation and Doppler radar data assimilation are conducted with the data of GFS (Global Forecasting System) and JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) reanalyses as the initial conditions respectively. The impact of assimilation radar data in different background fields on the initial typhoon field, internal structure and forecast were investigated based on the super typhoon case Saomai in 2006. The results show that, both experiments with GFS and JMA data are able to enhance the typhoon initial winds field at 700 hPa and geopotential height field at 500 hPa after assimilating radar observations. The improvements in terms of the root-mean-square error during the 3 h during the data assimilation cycling, the minimum sea level pressure, and the thermal and dynamic structure from the JMA tests are more significant than that with GFS data. The forecast skills for the precipitation, the typhoon track, and the intensity are also noticeable with JMA data by correctly predicting the precipitation location in the front of typhoon.
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Key words:
- initial conditions /
- data assimilation /
- WRF model /
- radar radial velocity
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图 1 质量控制前（a）和质量控制后（b）雷达径向速度对比
Fig. 1 Comparison of radar velocity before (a) and after (b) quality control
图 2 WRF模拟区域范围
2006年8月10日00:00 UTC至18:00 UTC台风“桑美”观测最佳路径和温州雷达中心位置及其雷达径向风对应影响半径
Fig. 2 WRF simulation area
The best track positions for Typhoon Saomai from China Meteorological Administration from 00:00 to 18:00 UTC on August 10, 2006. Also indicated the Wenzhou radar location and maximum range coverage circles
图 4 2006年8月10日03:00 UTC GFS试验（a）和JMA试验（b）700 hPa风场增量（阴影区域为观测雷达资料覆盖区域）
Fig. 4 The analysis wind increment of 700 hPa for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments at 03:00 UTC on August 10, 2006 (the shaded is the radar observation data coverage area)
图 5 同化雷达径向风资料前GFS试验（a）、JMA试验（b）和同化雷达径向风资料后GFS试验（c）、JMA试验（d）500 hPa高度场（等值线，单位：m）
Fig. 5 The 500 hPa geopotential height filed analysis for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments before assimilating radar data, and the analysis for GFS (c) and JMA (d) after assimilating data (contour line, unit: m)
图 6 2006年8月10日03:00 UTC至06:00 UTC每个同化时刻的同化前后径向速度均方根误差（a）和最小海平面气压（b）
Fig. 6 The forecast and analysis (sawtooth pattern during the data assimilation cycling) for root mean square error of radial velocity (a) and the minimum sea level pressures (b) for GFS and JMA experiments from 03:00 UTC to 06:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
图 7 2006年8月10日06:00 UTC GFS试验（a）和JMA试验（b）近地面风场和海平面气压场（等值线，单位：hPa）合成示意图
Fig. 7 The sea level pressure (solid contours, unit: hPa) and the surface wind vectors for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments at 06:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
图 8 2006年8月10日06:00 UTC GFS试验（a）和JMA试验（b）经过台风中心风速和位温（等值线，单位：K）的垂直剖面
Fig. 8 Vertical cross sections of analyzed horizontal wind speed and potential temperature (contour line, unit: K) for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments at 06:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
图 9 2006年8月10日06:00 UTC GFS试验（a）和JMA试验（b）温度距平（等值线，单位: K）
Fig. 9 Vertical cross sections of analyzed temperature anomalies (contour line, unit: K) for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments at 06:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
图 10 2006年8月10日06:00 UTC GFS试验（a）和JMA试验（b）台风轴对称切向风和温度距平（等值线，单位：K）
Fig. 10 Contour plot of azimuthally-averaged tangential wind and temperature deviated from the horizontal mean (contour line, unit: K) for GFS (a) and JMA (b) experiments at 06:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
图 11 2006年8月10日06:00 UTC至09:00 UTC，观测实况、GFS试验和JMA试验雷达组合反射率因子
Fig. 11 The radar combination reflectivity factor for observation, GFS, and JMA experiments from 06:00 UTC to 18:00 UTC on August 10, 2006
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