Spatial assessment of cumulative impact on China’s marine ecosystems
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摘要: 海洋生态系统累积影响评估是科学认知该系统对外界扰动响应与反馈规律的生态学方法。为了探索和揭示其中的内在规律，本文以我国部分近陆海域为研究范围，选取海洋渔业、海洋航运、陆源及近海、气候变化4种类型下的16个生态压力因子，通过空间量化和标准化，在1 km×1 km空间格栅尺度下，针对研究范围内9种海洋生境类型，进行了累积暴露度和累积影响度评估。结果显示：研究海域累积暴露度总体呈现近岸高于远海，并向外海一侧逐步递减；陆源污染、渔业捕捞对近岸海域生态系统影响度较大，总体来看气候变化影响度最大；我国近海分别有22.8%和7.6%的海域受影响程度较高和极高，其中长三角海域受人类活动影响度最高。Abstract: The cumulative human impact assessment of marine ecosystems is an ecological method to scientifically recognize the response and feedback laws of the system to external disturbances. In order to explore and reveal the inherent mechanisms, the region of coastal seas of China as the research scope in this article, selecting 16 ecological factors in four aspects, marine fishery, marine shipping, land-based and offshore pressures, and climate change. And by spatial quantization and standardization, the cumulative exposure and impact assessment of the 9 marine habitat types in the study area are carried out under the 1 km×1 km spatial grid scale. The results show that the cumulative exposure in the study area is generally higher in the coastal seas than in the pelagic, and gradually decreases to the far ocean; the coastal seas ecosystem is mainly affected by land-based pollution and fishing, and overall climate change contributes the most; 22.8% and 7.6% of China’s coastal seas are respectively highly and extremely highly affected, among which the Changjiang River Delta is the most affected by human activities.
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Key words:
- China coastal seas /
- human activities /
- marine ecosystems /
- spatial cumulative effects
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图 1 中国部分近陆海域人类活动累积影响研究区域
Fig. 1 Study on the cumulative impact of human activities in some coastal seas of China
图 2 累积影响空间化评估示意图
Fig. 2 The schematic diagram of spatial assessment of cumulative impact
图 3 16个生态压力因子未转换前数值分布频率直方图
Fig. 3 Frequency histogram of the numerical distribution of 16 pressure factors before conversion
图 5 我国近海人类活动压力累积暴露度(a)、渤海海域(b)、长三角海域(c)、珠三角海域(d)的局部放大图以及其压力值频次分布(e−g)
Fig. 5 Accumulated exposure to pressure from human activities in the coastal seas of China (a), and the Bohai Sea (b), the Changjiang River Delta (c), a partial enlarged view of the Zhujiang River Delta (d), and represent the frequency distribution of pressure values(e−g), respectively
图 6 我国近海人类活动压力累积影响因子数量（a）及其对总累积暴露度的贡献百分比（b−d）
Fig. 6 The cumulative number of factors affecting the pressure of human activities in the coastal seas of China (a) and their contribution to the total cumulative exposure (b−d)
图 7 人类活动压力对我国近海海洋生态系统的累积影响度（a）和4种特定人类活动压力因子(拖网捕捞、海上航运、海洋热浪及营养盐污染)的横断面图（b）
散点为各网格点得分，各趋势线为局部加权回归拟合线
Fig. 7 The cumulative impact of human activity pressure on China’s coastal marine ecosystems (a), and a cross-sectional view of four specific human activity pressure factors (trawling fishing, maritime navigation, ocean heat waves, and nutrient pollution) (b)
The point is the score of each grid point, and each trend line is the locally weighted regression fitting line
图 8 海洋渔业（压力因子数目为6）、海洋航运（压力因子数目为2）、陆源及近海（压力因子数目为5）及气候变化（压力因子数目为3）累积影响度空间分布
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of cumulative influence of marine fisheries (number of pressure factors is 6), ocean shipping (number of pressure factors is 2), land-source and offshore (number of pressure factors is 5), and climate change (number of pressure factors is 3)
表 1 生态压力因子（N=16）描述及数据来源
Tab. 1 Description of each stress factor (N=16) and data source
类别 压力因子 空间 时间 压力量化 来源 海洋渔业 S1拖网 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] S2围网 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] S3鱿钓 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] S4漂流延绳钓 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] S5固定式渔具 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] S6其他渔具 0.01°×0.01° 2015年 基于每日各栅格点捕捞努力量计算不同类型捕捞方式的年均值（单位：h/km2） 文献[15] 海洋航运 S7航运 0.1°×0.1° 2013年 由航运轨迹密度确定（单位：轨迹/网格） 文献[5] S8港口 0.01°×0.01° − 基于距港口远近，取倒数（单位：km） 文献[16] 陆源及近海 S9人口密度 1 km×1 km 2015年 以离岸1 km海域网格点为中心，计算其10 km半径缓冲区内人口数量（单位：人/km2） 文献[17] S10营养盐污染 站点监测 2015年 监测点数据来源于生态环境部（单位：mg/L） 文献[18] S11赤潮 位置点 2005−2015年 基于近10年间赤潮累积发生位置点，做核密度估计（无量纲） 文献[19] S12石油类污染 站点监测 2015年 监测点数据来源于生态环境部（单位：mg/L） 文献[20] S13有机污染 1 km×1 km 2013年 主要基于农药、杀虫剂用量模拟得到（单位：t） 文献[5] 气候变化 S14海表热浪 0.25°×0.25° 2015年 基于最优插值海表温度产品OISST获得（单位：℃） 文献[21] S15海洋酸化 1°×1° 2013年 基于月均文石饱和度状况获得（无量纲） 文献[5] S16海平面上升 0.25°×0.25° 1992−2012年 基于AVISO卫星高度计产品获得（单位：mm） 文献[22] 注： −代表无年份区别。 
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表 2 海洋生境（N=9）分类及数据来源
Tab. 2 Classification and source of various marine habitats (N=9)
序号 生境类型 描述 来源 H1 海岸 根据大陆地边界向外延伸1 km的区域 文献[23] H2 潮滩湿地 根据卫星遥感影像反演的2014−2016年的均值分布区域 文献[24] H3 红树林 2015年我国沿海红树林分布 文献[25] H4 盐沼地 根据全球盐沼地分布数据截取我国近岸盐沼地分布区域 文献[26] H5 海草床 根据全球盐沼地分布数据截取我国近岸海草床分布区域 文献[26] H6 珊瑚礁 根据全球盐沼地分布数据截取我国近岸珊瑚礁分布区域 文献[26] H7 近岸浅水及底栖生境 水深小于20 m的区域，以浅水和底栖环境为主 文献[26] H8 近海表层生境 水深大于20 m的表层水环境 文献[27] H9 近海深层生境 水深大于200 m的深层水环境 文献[27]
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表 3 不同生境对应不同压力因子的脆弱性矩阵
Tab. 3 Vulnerability matrix corresponding to different stress factors in different habitats
H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 S1 0.2 1.3 0 1 0.2 1.2 2.1 2.1 0.8 S2 0 0 0 0.4 0 0.7 0.6 2.2 0.6 S3 0 0 0 0.4 0 0.7 0.6 2.2 0.6 S4 0.1 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0 3 2.2 S5 0.9 1.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.6 0 S6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 0 S7 1.9 0.3 2 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 1.9 0 S8 1 2 2 1.4 1.9 1.5 2 1.9 0 S9 2.7 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 2 0.9 0 S10 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 2 1.2 0 S11 0.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 2 1.2 0 S12 0.1 2.1 1.4 1.7 1 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.6 S13 0.1 2.1 1.4 1.7 1 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.6 S14 1.4 2.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.8 0.5 3.3 2.3 S15 0 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.1 1.8 0 S16 1.9 2.5 3 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.2 0 0
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