晚春北极涛动对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的影响

周群; 魏立新

doi:10.12284/hyxb2021007

晚春北极涛动对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的影响

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021007

周群^1,,
魏立新¹

国家海洋环境预报中心，北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目（41505050）；中国科学院海洋环流与波动重点实验室开放基金项目（KLOCW1902）

详细信息

作者简介:
周群（1986—），女，山东省青岛市人，博士，主要从事气候动力学方面的研究。E-mail：zhouqun1224@163.com

中图分类号: P444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-06-04
- 修回日期: 2020-05-07
- 网络出版日期: 2021-01-06
- 刊出日期: 2021-01-25

Impacts of the late spring Arctic Oscillation on the summer tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

Zhou Qun^1
,,
Wei Lixin¹

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 利用美国气象环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心 (NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料以及中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据集，本文探讨了1950–2018年期间晚春(5月)北极涛动(AO)与随后夏季(6–9月)西北太平洋上空热带气旋生成频数的关系。研究表明，晚春AO对夏季西北太平洋TC生成有明显的预报指示意义，二者之间存在显著的正相关关系。对应晚春AO指数偏高年，夏季西太平洋副热带高压主体位置偏东偏北、强度偏弱，西北太平洋上空大气低层有较强的辐合、高层辐散增强、中层水汽充足、垂直风切较弱，这些大尺度环境因子均有利于TC的生成。而在晚春AO指数偏低年，西北太平洋上空的大气环流特征与上述特征相反，造成TC生成频数偏少。进一步的分析揭示：与AO变化密切相关的北太平洋风暴轴位置的南北移动，在晚春AO与夏季西北太平洋TC生成频数二者关系中起到了关键作用。AO正位相(负位相)年，北太平洋风暴轴向北(向南)偏移，通过天气尺度波动和平均流之间的相互作用，造成后期夏季西北太平洋上空低层形成气旋性(反气旋性)涡度异常，在局地经向环流的调整作用下，西北太平洋副热带高压的位置及强度发生改变，对西北太平洋TC的形成起到了促进(抑制)作用。
- 北极涛动 /
- 热带气旋 /
- 西北太平洋 /
- 风暴轴
Abstract: In the present study, the connection between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in May and the following summer (June to September) western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency is investigated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and tropical cyclone data from China Meteorological Administration for the period 1950–2018. A statistically significant positive correlation is found between the late spring AO and summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency. The diagnosis results show that the low-level relative vorticity, high-level divergence, vertical wind shear and the mid-low level relative humidity are all beneficial for the genesis of the western North Pacific tropical cyclones during the positive AO years. Moreover, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward and northward and tends to be much weaker. On the contrary, during the negative AO years, the tropical cyclone formation is reduced because of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high combined with an anticyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere. The possible mechanism involved the variations of the storm track in the North Pacific. It is showed that during the positive (negative) AO years the storm track is moving northward (southward) and there is a cyclonic (an anticyclonic) vorticity anomaly in the lower troposphere in the western North Pacific in the subsequent summer through the interaction between the synoptic-scale eddies and low-frequency mean flow. The resulting anomalous local Hadley circulation could lead to the change of the western Pacific subtropical high and further contribute to the western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis.
- Arctic Oscillation /
- tropical cyclone /
- western North Pacific /
- storm track

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图 1 1950–2018年标准化的晚春（5月）AO指数（黑色实线）与夏季（6–9月）西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数（浅灰色虚线）的年际变化序列

Fig. 1 Normalized time series of the late spring (May) Arctic Oscillation (AO) index (black solid line) and tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific (grey dashed line) in the subsequent summer (June to September) for the period of 1950–2018

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图 2 1950–2018年期间夏季平均海平面气压场（SLP，等值线；间隔：0.1 hPa）和850 hPa风场（UV850，矢量；单位：m/s）（a）以及500 hPa垂直速度（O500，黑色等值线；间隔：1.5×10⁻³ Pa/s）和500 hPa位势高度场（H500，红色及蓝色等值线）（b）回归到晚春AO指数的分布

b中红色及蓝色特征值线分别表征多年平均及将回归结果叠加其上的西太平洋副热带高压位置。深色和浅色阴影分别表示海平面气压（a）、垂直速度（b）通过95%和90%信度水平验证

Fig. 2 Regression distributions of the summer mean sea level pressure (SLP, contours; interval: 0.1 hPa) and 850 hPa wind (UV850, vectors; unit: m/s) (a), 500 hPa vertical velocity (O500, black contours; interval: 1.5×10⁻³ Pa/s) and 500 hPa geopotential height (H500, red and blue contours) (b) on the late spring AO index

Red and blue lines in b denote the multi-year mean and superimposed the regressed anomalies on the multi-year mean western Pacific Subtropical High. Heavy and light shadings indicate the SLP (a), vertical velocity (b) anomalies significant above 95% and 90% confidence level, respectively

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图 3 将1950–2018年期间夏季平均对流层低层850 hPa相对涡度（等值线；间隔：0.5×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹）（a），对流层上层200 hPa散度（等值线；间隔：0.75×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹）（b），200～850 hPa之间纬向风的垂直切变（等值线；间隔：0.3 m/s）（c）以及700～500 hPa平均相对湿度（等值线；间隔：0.3%）（d）回归到晚春AO指数的分布型

深色和浅色阴影分别表示通过95%和90%信度水平

Fig. 3 Regression distributions of the summer mean 850 hPa vorticity (contours; interval: 0.5×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹) (a), 200 hPa divergence (contours; interval: 0.75×10⁻⁶ s⁻¹) (b), vertical zonal wind shear between 200−850 hPa (contours; interval: 0.3 m/s) (c) and 700−500 hPa mean relative humidity (contours; interval: 0.3%) (d) on the late spring AO index

Heavy and light shadings indicate the areas with the anomaly values significant above 95% and 90% confidence level, respectively

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图 4 1950−2018年期间晚春AO指数与同期海平面气压场（a），500 hPa位势高度场（b），以及200 hPa位势高度场（c）的相关分布，将同期850 hPa风场（矢量；单位：m/s）回归到春晚AO指数的分布型（d）

a、b和c中等值线间隔为0.15，阴影表示通过95%信度检验的区域

Fig. 4 Correlation patterns between late spring AO index and the simultaneous sea level pressure (a), 500 hPa geopotential height (b), and 200 hPa geopotential height (c) for the period 1950–2018, regressed pattern 850 hPa wind (vectors; unit: m/s) on the late spring AO index (d)

The contour interval is 0.15 in a, b and c. Significant values above the 95% confidence level are shaded

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图 5 将1950−2018年期间5月北太平洋风暴轴（等值线；间隔：60 gpm）回归到同期AO指数的分布型（a），5月风暴轴（等值线；间隔：60 gpm）经验正交函数分解的第二模态的空间分布型（b）以及对应的标准化处理后的时间系数（即风暴轴位置指数STPI）（c）

a和b中深、浅色阴影分别通过95%、90%信度检验的区域。加粗黑色虚线表示多年平均风暴轴的轴线位置

Fig. 5 Regression of the North Pacific storm track (contours; interval: 60 gpm) on the May AO index (a), spatial pattern (contours; interval: 60 gpm) (b) and normalized time coefficients (defined as the Storm Track Position Index, STPI) (c) of the second leading empirical orthogonal function modes of the North Pacific storm track in May

Heavy and light shadings indicate the 95% and 90% confidence level in a and b. The axis of the multi-year mean storm track is marked by the thick black dashed line

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图 6 将1950–2018年期间夏季平均850 hPa风场（矢量；单位：m/s）、850 hPa相对涡度（深色和浅色阴影分别表示通过95%和90%信度水平）及500 hPa位势高度场回归到风暴轴位置指数的空间分布型

红色及蓝色加粗线分别表征多年平均及将回归结果叠加其上的西太平洋副热带高压位置

Fig. 6 Regression distributions of storm track position index on the summer mean 850 hPa wind (vectors; unit: m/s), 850 hPa vorticity (anomalies significant above 95% and 90% confidence level are shaded with dark and shallow) and 500 hPa geopontential height during 1950–2018

Red and blue lines denote the multi-year mean western Pacific subtropical high and superimposed the regressed anomalies on it

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图 7 将1950–2018年期间夏季平均西北太平洋局地（120°E～180°平均）经向环流回归到晚春风暴轴位置指数（a）以及晚春AO指数（b）的分布型

等值线间隔为0.25×10⁻² Pa/s，深、浅色阴影分别表示通过95%、90%信度检验的区域

Fig. 7 Regression distributions of the late spring strom track position index (a), AO index (b) on the summer mean vertical motion over western North Pacific local Hadley cell (120°E–180° average)

Contour interval is 0.25×10⁻² Pa/s. Heavy and light shadings denote the regions at the 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively

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图 8 1950–2018年期间晚春AO指数与同期海表温度指数场的相关分布（等值线；间隔：0.15）（a），标准化的AO指数（红色实线）与热带大西洋关键区海表温度指数（蓝色实线）的年际变化序列（b）以及两个序列之间的滑动相关系数（31 a滑动窗口，灰色阴影）（c）

a中深、浅色阴影分别表示通过95%、90%信度检验的区域。c中蓝色水平线表示95%信度水平

Fig. 8 Correlation of the late spring AO index and the simultaneous SST (contours; interval: 0.15) (a), normalized time series of the AO index (red line) and northern tropical Atlantic SST (blue line) (b) and the 31 a sliding correlations (grey shadings) between the two series (c) during 1950−2018

Heavy and light shadings in a denote the regions at the 95% and 90% confidence levels, respectively. The horizontal blue line in c indicates the 95% confidence level

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