留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

宋春阳 张守文 姜华 王辉 王大奎 黄勇勇

宋春阳, 张守文, 姜华, 王辉, 王大奎, 黄勇勇. CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估[J]. 海洋学报, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.
引用本文: 宋春阳, 张守文, 姜华, 王辉, 王大奎, 黄勇勇. CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估[J]. 海洋学报, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.
Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.
Citation: Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基金项目: 国家海洋局海洋公益性行业科研专项经费(201505013);国家自然科学基金(41376016,41206023,41306007)

Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5

  • 摘要: 基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。
  • IPCC. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis[C]//Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, NY, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2013:1535, doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
    Feddema J J, Oleson K W, Bonan G B, et al. The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates[J]. Science, 2005, 310(5754):1674-1678.
    Liu Zhu, Mehran A, Phillips T J, et al. Seasonal and regional biases in CMIP5 precipitation simulations[J]. Climate Research, 2014, 60(1):35-50.
    Ma Jian, Xie Shangping. Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change:a source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(8):2482-2501.
    Du Yan, Xie Shangping. Role of atmospheric adjustments in the tropical Indian Ocean warming during the 20th century in climate models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(8), doi: 10.1029/2008GL033631.
    杜美芳, 徐海明, 周超. 基于CMIP5资料的热带大洋非均匀增暖及其成因的分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2015, 34(3):1-12. Du Meifang, Xu Haiming, Zhou Chao. Analysis of non-uniform sea surface temperature warming over the tropical oceans and its causes based on CMIP5 data[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2015, 34(3):1-12.
    孙燕. IPCC模式对印太暖池模拟的研究[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学, 2011. Sun Yan. Simulations of the Indo-Pacific warm pool by IPCC models[D]. Qingdao:Ocean University of China, 2011.
    刘喜惠. 我国近海SST低频变化的特征及其可能机制[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学, 2012. Liu Xihui. Characteristic and mechanisms of sea surface temperature low frequency variability in the offshore sea of China[D]. Qingdao:Ocean University of China, 2012.
    张秀芝, 裘越芳, 吴迅英. 近百年中国近海海温变化[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4):799-807. Zhang Xiuzhi, Qiu Yuefang, Wu Xunying. The long-term change for sea surface temperature in the last 100 years in the offshore sea of China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005, 10(4):799-807.
    刘娜. 东中国海热通量及热收支变化研究[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学, 2010. Liu Na. Variations of heat flux and heat budget in the East China Sea[D]. Qingdao:Ocean University of China, 2010.
    张志华, 陈幸荣, 蔡怡. 中国近海海温年际年代际振荡关键海区分析研究[J]. 海洋预报, 2012, 29(4):1-6. Zhang Zhihua, Chen Xingrong, Cai Yi. A study of SST decadal oscillation in China Sea[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2012, 29(4):1-6.
    伍玉梅, 徐兆礼, 樊伟, 等. 1985-2005年东海海表温度时空变化特征分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2011, 33(6):9-18. Wu Yumei, Xu Zhaoli, Fan Wei, et al. Change of sea surface temperature in the East China Sea during 1985-2005[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2011, 33(6):9-18.
    黄传江, 乔方利, 宋亚娟, 等. CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(1):38-47. Huang Chuanjiang, Qiao Fangli, Song Yajuan, et al. The simulation and forecast of SST in the South China Sea by CMIP5 models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(1):38-47.
    张吉, 左军成, 李娟, 等. RCP4.5情景下预测21世纪南海海平面变化[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(11):21-29. Zhang Ji, Zuo Juncheng, Li Juan, et al. Sea level variations in the South China Sea during the 21st century under RCP4.5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(11):21-29.
    王皘, 刘秦玉. 海气界面热通量交换对南海深水海盆SST持续增暖的可能贡献[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2011, 41(6):9-14, 22. Wang Qian, Liu Qinyu. Contribution of air-sea interface heat flux to the sea surface temperature persistence warming in South China Sea[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2011, 41(6):9-14, 22.
    管承扬. 未来全球气候变化情景下东海黑潮环流特征及其对大气强迫的响应分析[D]. 青岛:中国海洋大学, 2014. Guan Chengyang. The features of the Kuroshio circulation in East China Sea and its response to atmospheric forcing under global climate change scenario in the future[D]. Qingdao:Ocean University of China, 2014.
    陈锦年, 伍玉梅, 何宜军. 中国近海海气界面热通量的反演[J]. 海洋学报, 2006, 28(4):26-35. Chen Jinnian, Wu Yumei, He Yijun. The remote of the sensible and latent heat fluxes in China coast[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2006, 28(4):26-35.
    冯琳, 林霄沛. 1945-2006年东中国海海表温度的长期变化趋势[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2009, 39(1):13-18. Feng Lin, Lin Xiaopei. Long-term trend of the East China Sea surface temperature during 1945-2006[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2009, 39(1):13-18.
    Liu Na, Wang Hui, Ling Tiejun, et al. The influence of ENSO on sea surface temperature variations in the China seas[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2013, 32(9):21-29.
    Miao Chiyuan, Duan Qingyun, Sun Qiaohong, et al. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2014, 9(5):055007.
    Chen Liang, Frauenfeld O W. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2014, 119(10):5767-5786.
    Xu Chonghai, Xu Ying. The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5(6):527-533.
    Xu Ying, Xu Chonghai. Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5(6):489-494.
    陈晓晨. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D]. 北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2014. Chen Xiaochen. Assessment of the precipitation over China simulated by CMIP5 multi-models[D]. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 2014.
    Sillmann J, Kharin V V, Zhang X, et al. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble:Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2013, 118(4):1716-1733.
    Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster J M, et al. Going to the extremes:an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events[J]. Climatic Change, 2006, 79(3/4):185-211.
    Schopf P S, Burgman R J. A simple mechanism for ENSO residuals and asymmetry[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(13):3167-3179.
    Frankignoul C, Kestenare E. The surface heat flux feedback. Part Ⅰ:estimates from observations in the Atlantic and the North Pacific[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2002, 19(8):633-647.
    张芳, 董敏, 吴统文. CMIP5模式对ENSO现象的模拟能力评估[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(1):30-48. Zhang Fang, Dong Min, Wu Tongwen. Evaluation of the ENSO features simulations as done by the CMIP5 models[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(1):30-48.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  1099
  • HTML全文浏览量:  32
  • PDF下载量:  1201
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-03-04

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回