CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

宋春阳; 张守文; 姜华; 王辉; 王大奎; 黄勇勇

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

1.
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081
2.
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家海洋局海洋公益性行业科研专项经费（201505013）；国家自然科学基金（41376016，41206023，41306007）

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-03-04

Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 基于观测和再分析资料；利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征；但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海；集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上；与观测数据对比；模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势；从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明；ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下；未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势；最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃；净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。
- 中国近海海温 /
- CMIP5 /
- 模式评估 /
- 未来预估
Abstract: Based on observation and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 CMIP5 models to simulate monthly,seasonal and interannual SSTs in the China seas are evaluated. The results show that the CMIP5 models can simulate the spatial distribution of SST in the China seas well but underestimate its magnitude. The SST difference between the multi-model ensemble and observations is significant in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. As to the interannual timescale, the simulation results and Niño3 index is worse correlated than observation and Niño3 index. The SST in the China seas increases in 1960-2002, but changes to be stable in 2003. Among the 21 CMIP5 models, ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CM5A-MR,CMCC-CM,FGOALS-g2,CNRM-CM5-2 and INMCM4 can simulate the SSTS in the China seas better. The trend of SST in the China seas is simulated based on ACCESS1.0,INMCM4,BCC-CSM1.1,IPSL-CM5A-MR,CMCC-CM. Under RCP4.5, RCP8.5 run, the warming trends of SST will continue in the following 100 years with a spatial average of 1.5℃ and 3.3℃ over the whole China seas. The major cause of SST warming in the East China Sea is sea surface net heat flux and the temperature advection.
- SST in the China seas /
- CMIP5 /
- model evaluation /
- projection

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