21世纪格陵兰冰川融化速率对海平面变化的影响

李娟; 左军成; 谭伟; 陈美香; 赵雪

21世纪格陵兰冰川融化速率对海平面变化的影响

1.
国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东广州 510300;河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210098
2.
河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210098
3.
国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东广州 510300

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(41276018);海洋公益性项目(201005019);海洋公益性项目(201305020-8).

计量
- 文章访问数: 1433
- HTML全文浏览量: 10
- PDF下载量: 1532
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-07-18
- 修回日期: 2015-03-19

The influence of the melting rate of the Greenland ice sheet on the sea level variation for 21st century

1.
South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510300, China;Coastal and offshore Engineering Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2.
Coastal and offshore Engineering Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3.
South China Sea Marine Prediction Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510300, China

摘要

摘要: 本文利用大洋环流模式POP研究RCP4.5情景下21世纪格陵兰冰川不同的融化速率对全球及区域海平面变化的影响.结果显示:当格陵兰冰川的融化速率以每年1%增加时,全球大部分海域的动力和比容海平面变化基本不变,主要是由于格陵兰冰川在低速融化时并不会导致大西洋经向翻转流减弱.当格陵兰冰川的融化速率以每年3%和每年7%增加时,动力海平面在北大西洋副极地、大西洋热带、南大西洋副热带和北冰洋海域呈现出显著的上升趋势,这是因为格陵兰冰川快速融化导致大量的淡水输入附近海域,造成该上层海洋层化加强和深对流减弱,导致大西洋经向翻转流显著减弱;与此同时,热比容海平面在北冰洋、格陵兰岛南部海域和大西洋副热带海域显著下降,而在热带大西洋和湾流海域明显上升;此时盐比容海平面的变化与热比容海平面是反相的,这是由于大量的低温低盐水的输入,造成北大西洋副极地海域变冷变淡、大西洋经向翻转流和热盐环流显著减弱,引起了太平洋向北冰洋的热通量和淡水通量减少,导致了北冰洋海水变冷变淡,同时热带大西洋滞留了更多的高温高盐水,随着湾流被带到北大西洋,北大西洋副极地海域低温低盐的海水,被风生环流输运到副热带海域.
- 海平面变化 /
- 21世纪 /
- 格陵兰冰川 /
- RCP4.5 /
- 经向翻转流
Abstract: The influence of the different melting rate of Greenland ice sheet on sea level of the global and regional ocean are studied based on POP model under the RCP4.5 scenario for the 21st century. In the 21st century,the low melting rate of Greenland ice sheet has small influence on the global and regional sea level variations,which mainly due to the meridional overturning flow doesn't weak under the low melting rate of Greenland ice sheet in the Atlantic. The high melting rate will have notably effect on the dynamic and steric sea level in the Atlantic,the Arctic and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The dynamic sea level will significantly rise in the north Atlantic subpolar Ocean,tropical Atlantic Ocean,the south Atlantic subtropical and Arctic Ocean,which will rise fast in ocean of southern Greenland and along the coast of North America,that is due to notable weakened of the meridional overturning flow caused by strengthen stratification of the upper ocean and deep convection weakened because of a lot of fresh water input Greenland nearby ocean in the high rate of melting of Greenland ice sheet,namely the labrad or current will strengthen,the Gulf Stream and the north Atlantic current weakened. The thermosteric sea level will significantly decline in the Arctic ocean,the ocean of the southern Greenland and the Atlantic subtropical ocean,while which obviously rise the tropical Atlantic ocean and the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile the halosteric sea level change will be opposite to the thermosteric sea level. The steric sea level showed change due to the water is cooling and thin in the north Atlantic subpolar ocean,the weakened of the Atlantic meridional overturning flow and thermohaline circulation caused by input of lot of low temperature and low salt water in the 21st century.
- sea level variation /
- 21st century /
- Greenland ice sheet /
- RCP4.5 /
- meridional overturning flow

HTML全文

参考文献(24)

Rignot E,Kanagaratnam P. Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet[J]. Science,2006,311(5763): 986-990.

Velicogna I. Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE[J]. Geophysics Research Letter,2009,36: L19503.

Rignot E I,Velicogna M R,van den Broeke,et al. Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise [J]. Geophysics Research Letter,2011,38: L05503.

Li Juan,ZuoJuncheng,Cheng Meixiang,et al. Assessing the global averaged sea level budget over 2003-2010[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2013,32(10):16-23.

Alley R B,Clark P U,Huybrechts P,et al. Ice-sheet and sea-level changes[J]. Science,2005,310(5747): 456-460.

Katsman C A,Hazeleger W,Drijfhout S S,et al.Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt[J]. Climatic Change,2007,91(3/4): 351-374.

Pritchard H D,Arthern R J,Vaughan D G,et al. Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets[J].Nature,2009,461: 971-975.

Huybrechts P,Janssens I,Poncin C,et al. The response of the Green-land Ice Sheet to climate changes in the twenty-first century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechnical ice-sheet model[C]//International symposium on Ice Cores and Climate,Kangerlussuaq (Greenland).2001.

Jungclaus J H,Coauthors P. Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation？ [J]. Geophysics Research Letter,2006,33: L17708.

Vizcaíno M,Mikolajewicz U,Gröger M,et al. Long-term ice sheet-climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2008,31(6): 665-690.

Hu A,Meehl G A,Han W,et al. Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the meridional overturning circulation and global climate in the future[J]. Deep Sea Research II,2011,58: 1914-1926.

Gregory J M,Oerlemans J. Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes[J]. Nature,1998,391: 474-476.

Stouffer R J,Yin J,Gregpry J M,et al. Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes[J]. Journal of Climate,2006,19(8): 1365-1387.

Stouffer R J,Seidov D,Haupt B J. Climate response to external sources of freshwater: North Atlantic versus the Southern Ocean[J].Journal of Climate,2007,20(3): 436-448

Stocker T F,Broecker W S. Observation and modeling of North Atlantic deep water formation and its variability: Introduction[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,1994,99(12): 317.

Schmittner A,Latif M,Schneider B. Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the twenty-first century assessed by observations[J]. Geophysical Research Letter,2005,32: L23710.

Meehl G A,Stocker T F. Global climate projections[R]//IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2007: 747-845.

Hu A,Meehl G A,Han W Q,et al.Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the twenty-first century[J].Geophysical Research Letter,2009,36(10): L10707.

Hu A,Meehl G A,Han W Q,et al. Influence of continental ice retreat on future global climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2013,26(3): 3087-3111.

Kopp R E,Mitrovica J X,Griffies S M,et al. The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments[J]. Climatic Change,2010,103: 619-625.

Gregory J M,Church J A,Boer G J,et al. Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100[J].Climate Dynamics,2001,18(3/4): 225-240.

Yin J J,Schlesinger M E,Stouffer R J. Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States[J]. Nature Geoscience,2009,2(2): 262-266.

Rio M H,Hernandez F. A mean dynamic topography computed over the world ocean from altimetry,in situ measurements,and a geoid model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research,2004, 109: C12032.

Sakai K,Peltier W R. Dansgaard Oeschger Oscillation in a coupled atmosphere——Ocean climate model [J]. Journal of Climate,1997,10(2): 949-970.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计

计量

文章访问数: 1433
HTML全文浏览量: 10
PDF下载量: 1532
被引次数: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

留言板