IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化

陈长霖; 左军成; 杜凌; 何倩倩

IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化

1.
国家海洋局第二海洋研究所, 卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室, 浙江杭州 310012
2.
河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏南京 210098
3.
中国海洋大学极地海洋过程与全球海洋变化重点实验室, 山东青岛 266003
4.
中国水电顾问集团华东勘测设计研究院, 规划所, 浙江杭州 310014

基金项目: 国家重大科学研究计划课题(2012CB955601);国家自然科学基金项目(40976006);国家海洋局第二海洋研究所基本科研业务专项(JG1102)。

计量
- 文章访问数: 2104
- HTML全文浏览量: 10
- PDF下载量: 1833
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-08-31
- 修回日期: 2011-08-14

Long term trends in global sea level under IPCC SRES A2 scenario

1.
State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China
2.
College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3.
College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
4.
HYDROCHINA Huadong Engineering Corporation, Hangzhou 310014, China

摘要

摘要: 利用CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.004 8 mm/a²的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700 m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。
- 气候变化 /
- 海平面上升 /
- CCSM3 /
- IPCCSRESA2情景 /
- 比容
Abstract: Based on CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3) model, the long-term sea level trends of global ocean in the 20th and 21st century under IPCC SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2001) are analyzed in this paper. The result shows that global sea level rises about 4.0 cm during 20th century through steric expansion, with an acceleration of 0.004 8 mm/a²; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. CCSM3 simulation also shows that in the 21st century sea level will rise in acceleration; the global sea level will rise 30 cm during the whole century through steric expansion. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies that contribute to sea level change is very different between ocean basins. Significant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean can extend to 2 500 m depth, while the salinity change partially counteracts sea level rise due to this warming. The steric anomalies in the Pacific Ocean occur mainly in the upper 700 m. In the Southern Ocean, steric change can extend to the entire water column.
- sea level change /
- long tem trend /
- CCSM3 /
- IPCC SRES A2 scenario /
- steric

HTML全文

参考文献(32)

GREGORY J M, LOWE J A, TETT S B T. Simulated global-mean sea-level changes over the last half-millennium[J]. J Clim, 2006, 19(18): 4576-4591.

MILLER L, DOUGLAS B C. Mass and volume contributions to 20th century global sea level rise[J]. Nature, 2004, 428: 406-409.

CHURCH J A, WHITE N J, COLEMAN R, et al. Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950 to 2000 period[J]. J Clim, 2004, 17(13):2609-2625.

CHURCH J A, WHITE N J. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: 01602, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826.

HOLGATE S J. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century[J]. Geophys Res, 2007, 34: 01602, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028492.

WOODWORTH P L. A search for accelerations in records of European mean sea level[J]. Int J Climatol, 1990, 10: 129-143.

DOUGLAS B C. Global sea level acceleration[J]. J Geophys Res, 1992, 97: 12699-12706.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis[M]//SOLOMON S, QIN D, MANNING M,et al. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2007:996.

GREGORY J M, LOWE J A. Predictions of global and regional sea-level rise using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment[J]. Geophys Res, 2000, 27: 3069-3072. doi: 10.1029/1999GL011228.

LANDERER F W. Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B Scenario[J]. J Phy Oceanogr, 2007, 37(2): 296-312.

MEEHL G A,WASHINGTON W M. Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3[J]. J Climate, 2006, 19(11): 2597-2616.

COLLINS W D, et al. Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)[K]. NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE, 2004.

SMITH R, GENT P. Reference Manual for the Parallel Ocean Program (POP)[K]. 2004.

GREATBATCH R J. A note on the representaion of steric sea level in model that conserve volumne rather than mass[J]. J Geophys Res, 1994, 99: 12767-12771.

MELLOR G L, EZER T. Sea level variations induced by heating and cooling: an evaluation of the boussinesq approximation in ocean models[J]. J Geophys Res, 1995, 100: 20565-20577.

张学洪,李薇,金向泽,等. 压力坐标海洋环流模式的发展和应用前景[J].自然科学进展,12(10):1015-1020.

GILL A E. Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics[M]. San Diego:Academic Press, 1982:662.

LEAN J, BEER J, BRADLEY R. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change[J]. Geophys Res,1995, 22:655-658.

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M][C]//HOUGHTON J T, et al. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2001:881.

SMITH T M, REYNOLDS R W. A global merged land air and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997)[J]. J Climate, 2005,18: 2021-2036.

WUNSCH C, PONTE R M,HEIMBACH P. Decadal trends in sea level patterns,1993-2004[J]. J Climate, 2007, 20:5889-5911.

MUNK W. Ocean freshening, sea level rising[J]. Science, 2003,300:2041-2043.

SHEPHERD A, WINGHAM D, WALLIS D, et al. Recent loss of floating ice and the consequent sea level contribution[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2010, 37:L13503, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042496.

ISHII M, KIMOTO M, SAKAMOTO K, et al. Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses[J]. J Oceanogr, 2006, 62(2): 155-170.

LEVITUS S, ANTONOV J I, BOYER T P. Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32: 02604, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021592.

ANTONOV J I, LEVITUS S, BOYER T P. Steric variability of the world ocean, 1955-2003[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(12): L12602, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023112.

GREGORY J M, Coauthors. Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100[J]. Climate Dyn, 2001, 18: 225-240.

CAZENAVE A, NEREM R S. Present-day sea level change: observations and causes[J]. Rev Geophys, 2004, 42(3): RG3001.

ZUO J C, ZHANG J L, DU L, et al. Global sea level change and thermal contribution[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2008, 8(1): 1-8, doi:10.1007/s11802 009 0001 4.

THORPE A J, GREGORY J M, JOHNS T C, et al. Mechanisms determining the Atlantic thermohaline circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in a non-flux-adjusted coupled climate model[J]. J Climate, 2001,14: 3102-3116.

BARNETT T P, PIERCE D W, ACHUTARAO K M,et al. Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans[J]. Science, 2005, 309: 284-287.

VERTENSTEIN M, CRAIG T, MIDDLETON A, et al. CESM1.0 User's Guide .2010.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计