南海夏季风爆发与西太平洋暖池区热含量及对流异常
The relation between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and the heat content variations in the tropical western Pacific warm pool region
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摘要: 利用1955～1998年逐月的上层海洋热含量资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了南海夏季风爆发与热带西太平洋暖池区热含量异常的关系,并对影响过程进行了探讨.结果表明:(1)热带西太平洋暖池区是热带上层海洋热含量变化最大的区域,暖池区的热含量的变化与ENSO关系密切,是ENSO循环的重要组成部分,也是影响南海夏季风爆发最明显的地区.(2)南海夏季风爆发与前期(特别是前期冬、春季)暖池热状态的变化有密切关系,当前期暖池热含量高时,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚,这与由暖池变化所产生的上空大气的对流活动密切相关;4月暖池区热含量高(低)是预报南海夏季风爆发早(晚)的一个很好指标.(3)西太平洋暖池区热含量正异常时,辐散中心位于南海—西太平洋,对流强,西太副高弱且位置偏东,季风环流(印度洋纬向环流和经向环流)和Walker环流为正距平环流;正距平的季风环流有利于低空西到西南气流的加强,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚.由暖池变化所引起的大尺度季风环流和Walker环流的异常变化可能是影响南海夏季风爆发的一个重要动力机制.
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关键词:
- 西太平洋暖池区热含量异常 /
- 南海夏季风爆发 /
- 季风环流与Walker环流
Abstract: Multi-year JEDAC data of heat content in upper ocean and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyse the relationship between the heat content anomalies in the warm pool(WP) area of the western Pacific and onset of South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSM).The results show that the warm pool area is the place where heat content in the tropical upper layer changes with maximum range and which is most obviously influential on the SCSM.Compared with the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,the thermal state change in the WP aerea has more direct influence on Asian monsoon.Onset of the SCSM is very closely related to the heat content anomaly during the previous period(previous winter and spring) of the WP so that the heat content of March to April in the WP area is very good predictor for the onset of the SCSM.When the heat content of the WP area is positive convection center will be located in the South Chine Sea-West Pacific with strong convection,a positive anomaly of monsoon circulation and Walker circulation will take place and the subtropical high will be weaker and farther east.Positive anomalous monsoon circulation and Walker circulation will be favorable for westerly and southwesterly flow——the SCSM breaks off earlier than normal.Otherwise,the SCSM comes later than usual.Large-scale anomalous change of monsoon circulation and Walker circulation seems one of the important mechanisms to influence the SCSM. -
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