海平面长期变化对推算多年一遇极值水位的影响
The effect of long-term sea-level variation on calculating the extreme water levels of multiyear return periods
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摘要: 利用乳山口24a的年极值高、低水位和年平均海平面,分析讨论了平均海平面长期变化对推算多年一遇极值水位的影响.同时讨论了消除平均海平面中长期变化的途径.比较了消除平均海平面长期变化和保留这种变化情况下推算出的两种多年一遇极值水位,可以发现,对多年一遇高水位来说,保留平均海平面长期变化所得结果高于消除了的,而对多年一遇低水位而言,情况正好相反.Abstract: The effect of long-term variation in mean sea-level on extreme water levels of multiyear return periods was analyzed and discussed on the basis of data of the yearly extreme high(low) water levels and yearly mean sea-levels obtained through observation at Rushankou in a period of 24 a.And also approaches for eliminating the yearly mean sea-level long-term variation were discussed.Through the comparison between the extreme water levels of multiyear return periods in the case of yearly mean sea-level long-term variation being eliminated and those in the case of the long-term variation being retained,one can find that for the extreme high water levels,the results with the longterm variation being retained are higher than those with the long-term variation being eliminated,as for the extreme low water levels,the situation is just the oposite.
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