摘要:
文中,以水温垂直剖面的自模性将其由T-Z分布变为θ-η剖面为基础,在考虑海面加热,忽略热平流效应和来自海底的热通量情况下,将海洋分为4层,并在各层内利用其自模函数的积分趋于常量的特性,对引入自模函数的热传导方程进行推导运算,导出描述含中层冷水垂直热结构7个特征量的闭合方程组.当解得这些特征量之后,代入含有自模函数的温度表达式,即获得预报的整个水温剖面.为了检验模式的功能,我们利用东海西北部海域中27个测站,以5月5日和5月10日实测的特征量作为初值,分别试报了5月10日和5月15日的特征量及水温剖面.试报的结果表明:试报特征值和温度剖面与其实测值之间的平均绝对误差,特征温度小于或等于0.23℃,特征深度小于或等于1.18m,而水温剖面小于或等于0.20℃.由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的.
Abstract:
Based on the characteristic of the self-simulation of the vertical temperature profile and the property that the integral of similarity function is equal to constant at each layer,the sea was divided into 4 layers.The heat conduction equations of similarity function were deduced with considering heating from sea surface and nonheat transform at bottom.The equation set consists of 7 characteristic values of the vertical structure for the intermediate cold water.After these values were calculated,they were substituted to the temperature formulas of the selfsimulating function.The temperature profile can be predicted.In order to examine this model efficacy the hindcastings were done.The effectiveness for a given period of time is 5 d.The results shows that the root-mean square error between the predicted and measured of the characteristic temperature was lower than or equal to 0.23℃,the characteristic depth was lower than or equal to 1.18 m and the profile temperature was lower than or equal to 0.20℃.It is shown that the results of trial prediction are satisfactory.
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