摘要:
我国渤海每年约有3个月的结冰期,冰与海洋结构的相互作用远较波浪为甚,因此有必要进行冰与海洋结构相互作用的可靠性分析.首先,采用热力学的方法根据每年实测的环境参数对海冰平整冰厚进行数值模拟计算,然后根据计算结果对不同重现期的极值冰厚采用极值统计法给出了极值分布,并与其他文献作比较.其次,以应变速率为海冰强度的主要影响参数,给出了海冰强度的概率分布.最后,以Schwarz公式为静冰力计算公式,结合得到的冰厚和冰强度的概率分布,采用映射变换法进行不同重现期静冰力的可靠度分析计算,并用蒙特卡罗重点抽样法进行模拟.
关键词:
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海冰参数 /
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静冰力 /
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重现期 /
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可靠度
Abstract:
There are almost three months of ice period in the Bohai Sea, and the ice force is more powerful than the force of wave on the structure in winter.So, it is necessary to analysing the reliability of static ice force on the process action between ice and structure.First, a numerical simulation of the sea ice thickness on the lines of environment parameters is made based on practical measurements every year, and is compared to other literature.Second, the statistic distribution of sea ice strength is given, taking the strain velocity as main effect during of numeration.Finaly, the reliability of static ice force for different reccurrence periods is calculated by taking Schwarz formula as formula of calculating static ice force and results are simulated by Monte Carlo important sampling method.
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