基于LSTM构建海岸侵蚀风险预测模型的研究及应用

梁东; 高娜; 英晓明; 周曾; 舒勰俊; 徐婉明; 赵明利

doi:10.12284/hyxb2024059

基于LSTM构建海岸侵蚀风险预测模型的研究及应用

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024059

梁东^{1, 2,},
高娜¹,
英晓明^{1, 2},
周曾³,
舒勰俊¹,
徐婉明¹,
赵明利^{1, 2, ,}

1.
自然资源部南海发展研究院，广东广州 510300
2.
自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室，广东广州 510300
3.
河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室，江苏南京 210098

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2022YFC3106203）课题资助；自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室自主设立课题（MESTA-2022-C005）资助。

详细信息

作者简介:
梁东（1996—），男，云南省红河州人，主要从事海气浪耦合模型与神经网络融合应用的研究。E-mail：liangdong.96@qq.com

通讯作者:
赵明利（1978—），男，山东省肥城市人，正高级工程师，主要从事海洋灾害风险评估技术方法研究。E-mail：150980273@qq.com

中图分类号: P737.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-01-24
- 修回日期: 2024-05-13
- 网络出版日期: 2024-07-15
- 刊出日期: 2024-06-01

Research and application of constructing a coastal erosion risk prediction model based on LSTM

Liang Dong^{1, 2
,},
Gao Na¹,
Ying Xiaoming^{1, 2},
Zhou Zeng³,
Shu Xiejun¹,
Xu Wanming¹,
Zhao Mingli^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
South China Sea Development Research Institute, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou 510300, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application, Ministry of Natural Resources, Guangzhou 510300, China
3.
Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Coastal Ocean Resources Development and Environment Security, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

摘要

摘要: 岸线侵蚀预测是海岸动力地貌学研究的热点问题之一。本文基于长短期神经记忆网络LSTM，采用1985−2023年江苏射阳县附近海域收集到的岸线、水深和潮间带宽度数据，结合ERA5数据反演的波浪和潮流数据，构建海岸侵蚀风险预测模型。该预测模型可以准确反映海岸线的加速侵蚀、稳定侵蚀、淤积的非线性变化或线性变化趋势。预测结果表明，在沙源减少条件下，波浪和潮流增强是近20年来射阳海域海岸侵蚀的主要因素。此外，利用预测模型开展了海岸加固、消浪和弱流对海岸的防护效果试验，试验结果表明，海岸加固防护效果最佳，消浪防护效果较弱流防护效果好。预测模型设置运行过程高效，具有较高的应用价值和开发潜力。
- 海岸侵蚀预测 /
- 江苏射阳 /
- LSTM /
- 非线性变化
Abstract: Shoreline erosion prediction is one of the hot issues in coastal dynamic geomorphology research. Based on the long short term memory (LSTM), the data of shoreline, water depth, intertidal zone width , and wave and tidal current for ERA5 inversion clollected from 1985 to 2023 near Sheyang County of Jiangsu Province were used to construct a coastal erosion risk prediction model in this study. The prediction model could accurately predict the nonlinear/linear change trend of accelerated erosion, stable erosion or coastline sedimentation. The results showed that the increasing of wave and tidal currents was the main factor of coastal erosion in Sheyang area in recent 20 years under the condition of sand source reduction. Besides, an ideal experiment of coastal protection activities was conducted by using the prediction model, and the protection effects of coastal reinforcement, wave dissipation and weak current engineering were discussed. The results showed that the protection effect of coastal reinforcement is the best, and wave dissipation is better than weak current. The prediction model is reasonable, and has great application value and development potential.
- coastal erosion prediction /
- Sheyang, Jiangsu /
- LSTM /
- Nonlinear variation

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图 1 研究区域水深变化（a）与模型网格图（b）

Fig. 1 Water depth change in this study area (a) and model mesh diagram (b)

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图 2 研究区域年平均有效波高（a），年平均波浪周期（b）和年平均风速（c）

Fig. 2 Annual average effective wave height (a), annual average wave period (b) and annual average wind speed (c) in this study area

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图 3 LSTM 神经网络模型结构示意图

Fig. 3 Schematic diagram of LSTM neural network model structure

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图 4 海岸侵蚀风险预测模型

Fig. 4 Coastal erosion risk prediction model

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图 5 研究区域岸线回归变化率（a）与实际岸线变化（b）

Fig. 5 Regression rate of shoreline in this study area (a) and actual shoreline change (b)

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图 6 研究区域波浪（a）和流速（b）变化

Fig. 6 Wave (a) and tidal velocity (b) variations in this study area

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图 7 研究区域海岸坚固性（a）和潮间带宽度（b）变化

Fig. 7 Variations of coastal firmness (a) and intertidal width (b) in this study area

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图 8 海岸侵蚀风险预测模型验证

Fig. 8 Validation diagram of coastal erosion risk prediction model

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图 9 海岸侵蚀风险预测模型预测

Fig. 9 Prediction diagram of coastal erosion risk prediction model

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图 10 海岸变化趋势

Fig. 10 Diagram of coastal change trends

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图 11 海岸防护活动侵蚀风险预测

Fig. 11 Erosion risk prediction diagram of coastal protection activities

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图 12 双导堤侵蚀风险预测

Fig. 12 Predicted erosion risk diagram of double-dyke

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表 1 海岸侵蚀风险预测模型参数表

Tab. 1 Parameter table of coastal erosion risk prediction model

模型名称	参数名称	参数值
LSTM	Time steps	8
	Layers	2
	Input dim	5
	Return sequences	{True, False}
	Neurous	{80,88}
	Dropout	{ 0,0.25}
	Batch size	{13,8}
	Epochs	{8,10}

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表 2 岸线易损性等级评估表

Tab. 2 Assessment table of shoreline vulnerability level

岸线向陆100 m 平均高程	岸线易变性	岸线组成成分	岸线易损性
< 0	2	细砂	5
0 < X < 2	1.5	中砂/粉砂	4
> 2	1	粗砂/黏土	3
#	#	砾质	2
#	#	混凝土/岩石	1
注：#为空值。

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表 3 预测结果统计表

Tab. 3 Statistical table of projected results

	淤积	稳定	一般侵蚀	严重侵蚀	总计
2023预测断面数量	119	636	111	292	1158
2023真实断面数量	124	728	200	311	1363
准确率/%	95.9	87.4	55.5	93.9	84.7
判断标准/m	>25	−25 < X < 25	−100 < X < −25	X < −100

下载: 导出CSV

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