单纯形投影算子理论及在资料分析中的应用Ⅱ.在表层水温和青岛气温预测中的应用
Theory of simplex projection operator and its application to analysis data Ⅱ.Application to forecast SST and Qingdao air temperature
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摘要: 应用相空间理论对赤道单站日表层水温及青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了分析,结果表明:青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均的相关维数和嵌入维数分别为5.83、8,当反厄尔尼诺发生时赤道日SST的相关维和嵌入维数分别为3.93、11,当厄尔尼诺发生时其相关维数和嵌入维数分别为4.37、9.揭示了无论是厄尔尼诺还是反厄尔尼诺发生赤道日SST都具有混沌特征,并且厄尔尼诺发生其内部结构复杂化使得支撑奇怪吸引子的雏数增加,而嵌入维数减少.这种现象是由于表层水温所隐含非线性作用显着增强所导致.根据以上分析结果应用单纯形投影算子(simplex projection operator)预测方法对赤道单站日SST和青岛月平均气温的9点滑动平均资料进行了预测,其前8点最大相对误差分别为0.42%,7.4%.Abstract: Phase space theory is used to analyze the day SST of equatorial local area and nine moving average cn}th air temperature of Qingdao(NNIAMAT).The results show that the correlation dimension and embedding dimension of NMAMAT and SST are 5.83,8,3.93(anti-El Niňo) or 4.37(El Niňo),11(anti-El Niňo) or 9(El Niňo),respectively.Ihe SST of El Niňo and anti-El Niňo can be described as chaotic phenanenon.The correlation dimension increase and embedding dimension decrease of El Niňo SST slaw that the SST iner-structure during El Niňo period is oanplex and implies nonlinear interaction increase.The above parameters and the forecast method of simplex projection operator are used to predict the time series date of SST and NMAMAT,and the biggest prediction relative etaots ad SST and NMAMAT are 0.42%,7.4% within the first eight points,respectively.
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Key words:
- Simplex projection operator /
- correlation dimension
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