辽河三角洲地区海平面上升趋势及其影响评估
Assessment of trend and impacts of sea level rise in the Liaohe River Delta
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摘要:
根据潮位资料分析,辽河三角洲平原和辽东湾东岸近四五十年来相对海平面处于上升趋势,从70年代以来平均每年上升量为5mm左右.考虑到辽河三角洲平原地面下沉以及全球性海平面将加速上升,预计下个世纪内,辽河三角洲平原相对海平面上升的速率将达到8-10mm/a,到2050年相对海平面上升量将达到40～55cm.利用遥感和地理信息系统,对不同的海平面上升量将造成的土地淹没损失进行了预测.如不加防护,相对海平面上升0.5m时,将淹没近4000km2,包括整个营口市区和半个盘锦市区;上升1.0m时,将淹没5000km2.对海平面上升将造成海岸侵蚀、风暴潮和洪涝等灾害加剧等影响也进行了分析.
Abstract:Tidal records indicates that the relative sea level in the Liaohe River Delta and on the eastern coast of the Liaodong Bay leas risen at a rate of 5mm/a over the last 40-50 years.Considering the continuous tectonic land subsidence and the accelerated global sea level rise in the future,the amplitude of the relative sea level rice till 2050 will be 10-55cm.The land loss induced by relative sea level rise in scenarios of 0.5m and 1 m is calculated by using TM image interpretation and GIS techniques.If it is not protected,the deltaic area to be inundated will be about 4 000 and 5 000 km2 in the case of the relative sea level rise at 0.5m and 1 m respectively.The impacts of sea level rise on coastal erosion,storm surge and flood are also assessed.
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Key words:
- Sea level rise /
- the Liaodong Bay /
- the Liaohe River Delta /
- coastal management
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