埃尔尼诺的模拟和预测
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摘要: 众所周知,埃尔尼诺是以出现在美洲秘鲁和厄瓜多尔沿海区域数千千米尺度的异常高的暖水为特征的异常的海洋和天气事件,当埃尔尼诺现象出现时,全球性的大气环流发生变化,出现全球性天气异常.因而,它已被看成是全球年际气候变化的最突出的一种标志.
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中国科学院计算中心概率统计组,概率统计计算,科学出版社,1979,267-280. 郑宗成等,实用预测方法BASIC程序库,中山大学出版社,1985,229-246 Akaike,H,Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle,Second Iniernafional Symposium on Information Theory,1973,267-281. Box,G.E.P.and G.M,Jenkins.Time Series Analysis,Forecasting and Control,San Francisco,Holders-Day.1970. Rasmusson,E.M.et al.,Meteorological aspects of the El Nino southern Qscillation.Monthly Wea,Rev,112(1983).184-188. Weare.B,C,An extension of an El Nino index,Monthly Weather Review,114(1985),644-647. Wright.P.B.,Relationship between indices of the Southern Qscillation,Monthly Weather Review.113(1984),1913-1919, -
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