聚类分析和数量化方法在台风路径预报中的应用
APPLICATION OF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND QUANTIFICATI ON PROCESS TO TYPHOON TRACK FORECASTING
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摘要: 聚类分析是数理统计中研究物以类聚的一种方法.它的主要目的是研究事物的分类.在气象上由于各种环流形势非常复杂,仅仅凭经验来判断分类往往是不够的,如果用聚类分析把历史台风样本按照一定的分型标准客观地分成几类,则既可以分类归纳出各种客观预报方法,又可以把各个型作为一个“质”的因子,然后通过数量化处理转化成“量”的因子,参加到预报方程中去.本文采用后一种方案,重点在改进预报因子.Abstract: Cluster analysis is used to stratify historical typhoon Samples according to Certain standards of pattern recognition.Then the resulted factors are quantified and fed into forecast equations.The computations indicate that the application of Predictors with "field" and "pattern" features to the statistical forecasting of typhoon tracks is in Conformity with the experience of forecasters.These predictors not only have Clear physical meaning, but also prove to be highly effective in the improvement of the forecast errors.
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Jerry,D,J.,Sanson,B.and Donald,S.N,.Monthly Weather Review,106(1978) 7,925-937. John,E.G.and William,M.,Journal of Applied Peteorology,16(1977),1,34-42. Anctetbetg,M,R.,Cluster Analysis for Applications,Academic press,1973. Harsigon,J.A.,clustering Algorithuns,John wiley,1975 吉林大学概率统计教研室,数最化方法在研究台风预报和森林生长中的应用,吉林大学学报,1973,1. -
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